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The Honolulu Advertiser

Posted on: Thursday, November 4, 2004

Business climate clears up

By Michael J. Martinez
Associated Press

NEW YORK — President Bush's victory is shaping up as a potential bonanza for Wall Street, where firms are salivating about the possibility that he will follow through on his pledge to allow private investment of Social Security money.

As President Bush declared victory in his re-election campaign, Wall Street and Corporate America began to queue up to cash in on what they perceive as a business-friendly political climate.

Richard Drew • Associated Press

A second term for the Republican president also makes it likely that drugmakers can head off government-mandated price controls for now. The defense industry also looks like a winner, more regulatory victories may be in store for the Baby Bells, and look for a new push for oil drilling in the Alaska wilderness.

While the privatization of Social Security has taken a back seat in this current election, experts predict the president will work with congressional Republicans, who widemed their majority in both houses, on what would be the most dramatic changes in the government retirement program's 69-year history. In addition, the president has gone on record as supporting an increase in medical savings accounts for individuals.

Banks, investment firms, mutual fund companies and insurers, of course, would offer to help individuals manage these new private retirement investments, which could lead to billions of dollars in new money under their control and higher profits if the legislation clears Congress.

"The Bush administration is more oriented toward what they call the "ownership society," said Ken McCarthy, chief economist for vFinance Investments Inc. "If people are going to have more control over their assets, people are going to need advice on how to manage those assets, and that can only help the financial services industry."

That, in turn, will make financial stocks more attractive, analysts said.

Likewise, dividend-yielding stocks — a popular asset class in the uncertain market of 2004 — will continue to be a solid option. One of Bush's most popular first-term tax cuts was setting the dividend tax rate at 15 percent, rather than normal income tax rates of up to 38.6 percent. That tax cut expires in 2008, but it's expected that Bush will work to make it and many other tax cuts permanent.

In the end, however, after a trying year on the stock markets, most investors were simply glad to have the election decided. "The relatively flat performance of the markets this year is a reflection of the close race and people having no certainty over how things were going to be after Nov. 2," McCarthy said. "It's good to have this out of the way."

DRUGMAKERS

Status quo is good news for drugmakers and investors in the stocks of companies like Pfizer Inc. and GlaxoSmithKline PLC, which were facing the potential of much tougher oversight on pricing under a John Kerry presidency. Consumer advocates counter that that's bad news for average Americans.

Industry analysts say that with Bush in the White House and Republicans increasing their control of Congress, government price controls for prescription medicines won't be on the table. The free-market system, where demand drives price, will continue, said Barbara Ryan, a pharmaceuticals analyst and managing director at Deutsche Bank Securities.

HEALTHCARE COMPANIES

Businesses have identified soaring health insurance costs as the most critical issue facing them today, but proposals by Bush aren't likely to slow the growth immediately in spending for both companies and their employees.

This year, employers will pay an average of nearly $7,300 for their share of the cost to ensure a family of four and $3,137 for single coverage, according to the survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation and Health Research and Educational Trust. Premiums also rose for the fourth straight year at a double-digit increase rate.

ENERGY

The president is likely to call on Congress to revive stalled legislation that would have allowed private companies to search for oil, coal and natural gas on federal lands off limits to exploration and production, including Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Such a move, part of Bush's plan to reduce the country's rising dependency on imports, could benefit large petroleum producers such as BP PLC, Anadarko Petroleum Corp. and Devon Energy Corp.

Bush also wants to make it easier for the oil industry to build new refineries. There hasn't been a new refinery built in the United States in 28 years and the industry complains about meager profit margins, hefty environmental costs and too much government regulation.

FINANCIAL SERVICES

In addition to benefiting from Bush proposals for Social Security privatization and health savings accounts, the nation's brokerage firms and asset managers, including mutual fund companies, could be aided by a rising stock market.

"This should give the incentive to investors to look at financial stocks of companies that would manage these private assets," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor's in New York.

Still, Bush's pledge to try to make permanent the tax cuts he won in his first term — despite the widening federal budget deficit — could be a negative for some financial services companies.

MEDIA

The Federal Communications Commission is likely to revisit its proposal to allow greater consolidation of media ownership, though perhaps more gingerly than the first time around when the sweeping rule change largely failed because of public opposition and legal challenges.

The FCC succeeded in making headway on a few key issues, notably raising the limit on the size of the national television audience that one broadcaster can reach. The FCC had wanted to raise the cap from 35 percent to 45 percent, but Congress stepped in and set the cap at 39 percent, the approximate current reach of stations owned by News Corp.'s Fox and Viacom Inc.'s CBS.

DEFENSE AND TECHNOLOGY

Technology spending by government likely will continue to be concentrated on defense and homeland security, with a question mark hanging over promises of an ambitious space program.

During Bush's first term, federal spending on research and development jumped more than 50 percent, rising from $84 billion in 2000 to $126 billion in 2004. Most of that money— $71 billion in 2004 — was spent on research and development for defense, said Kei Koizumi, director of the budget and research policy program at the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Another $4 billion went to research and development for homeland security.

AUTOS

The Bush administration has instituted a slight increase in fuel-economy standards for light trucks — a minimum fleet average of 22.2 miles per gallon by 2007, up from 20.7 mpg — but maintained the standard for cars at 27.5 mpg.

The automakers, in general, oppose government-mandated changes in fuel-economy standards. Still, some analysts say the combination of high oil prices and environmental concerns may force the second-term president to push for more aggressive measures on fuel economy. He has proposed increased federal support for the development of advanced technologies such as hydrogen-fueled cars.

TELECOMMUNICATIONS

Michael Powell is expected to step down as chairman of the Federal Communications Commission after leading the agency to a series of deregulatory decisions that benefit the regional Bell telephone companies. President Bush's replacements for Powell and a Democratic commissioner whose term is up will ensure a continuing GOP majority, leading to further deregulation with a goal of bridging the digital divide more quickly.

Freed of an obligation to lease new fiber lines to rivals such as AT&T Corp. and MCI Corp., three of the four Bells — Verizon Communications Inc., BellSouth Corp. and SBC Communications Inc. — said last month they were accelerating plans to replace copper wires with speedy fiber-optic cables which can deliver high-speed Internet access to more homes, schools and businesses.

TRANSPORTATION

Bush wants to keep spending on highways and Amtrak relatively limited, and both he and the Republican majority in Congress seem unwilling to offer any more financial assistance to the ailing airline industry.

Bush wants to spend $256 billion on highways over the next six years, about $60 million less than Kerry said he would seek. Bush has proposed spending $900 million on Amtrak, about 30 percent less than Kerry, and privatizing parts of the financially struggling railroad. As for the airline industry, the Bush administration supported $10 billion in loan guarantees and $5 billion in emergency money after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, though no further bailout is expected.

BIOTECHNOLOGY

Biotech titans Amgen Inc. and Genentech Inc. stood to lose the most if Kerry were elected and quickly moved to permit reimportation of cheaper versions of pricey U.S. drugs from Canada and elsewhere.

Now, with Bush headed to a second term, "the big issues for biotech are who the new president will appoint to key positions such as the FDA commissioner," said Carl Feldbaum, president of the Washington, D.C.-based Biotechnology Industry Organization.