Posted on: Friday, November 5, 2004
India predicts more jobs from U.S.
By Cherian Thomas and Rob Stewart
Bloomberg News
Investors agree. "There is no company worldwide that is not aware of what India can offer," Pramod Bhasin, president of Hong Kong-based GE Capital Asia Pacific Ltd., said at a seminar in Mumbai before the election result. "Outsourcing promises employment, growth and scale" for India.
Shares in Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., Infosys Technologies Ltd., Wipro Ltd. and Satyam Computer Services Ltd., India's biggest software exporters, gained for a second day as the election result ended concern that a victory for Democratic challenger John Kerry would lead to curbs on U.S. orders.
The U.S. economy lost 821,000 jobs in Bush's first term, making him the first president since Herbert Hoover in the Great Depression to preside over a net employment loss. India was a key beneficiary as companies took advantage of the country's cheaper pool of skilled workers in industries such as software development and call centers.
"The value proposition we offer is so compelling that economics will take over the politics," V. Srinivas, chief financial officer of Satyam, said. Indian software programmers are paid a sixth of the U.S. average.
Bush has said he will sign a bill banning contractors from taking government work overseas. The U.S. Senate in March voted 70 to 26 for a scaled-back plan to curb the use of federal funds for contracting work done outside the U.S. The proposal would prevent the government from buying goods such as automobiles and services such as software made in China, India or other countries.
"Outsourcing is a phenomenon that's not going to stop," Arjuna Mahendran, chief economist at Credit Suisse private bank in Asia Pacific in Singapore, said.
Kerry focused his campaign on the economy, labeling Bush the president with the worst employment record in 72 years.
He promised to create 10 million jobs by 2009, supporting trade agreements that ensure U.S. workers are competing on equal terms with those overseas. He also proposed to end a tax break on profits companies earn from foreign plants and instead offer incentives to companies that create jobs at home.
India's exports of software, call center and transaction processing services are expected to increase sixfold to $57 billion by 2008, according to a 2002 study by industry group National Association of Software and Service Companies, and McKinsey & Co. The industry will contribute about 7 percent to the country's gross domestic product by 2008 and directly and indirectly employ 4 million people, four times the current number.
"For global companies to stay in business, they have to take advantage of these low cost environments," said Andrea Bierce, vice president and managing director at A.T. Kearney Inc. in New York.
Pressure on U.S. companies to find ways to cut costs may intensify as soaring fuel costs slow economic growth, said Phiroz Vandrevala, executive vice-president at Tata Consultancy. The International Monetary Fund said on Sept. 29 it expects global growth to slow to 4.3 percent in 2005 from 5 percent this year, and many economists are more pessimistic.
In a study published a year ago, NASSCOM found that for every $100 of call-center work moved offshore by U.S. companies, $143 of repatriated profits, cost savings and sales of telecommunications equipment flows back to the United States.
"There have been enough studies on the issue, which clearly indicate that outsourcing benefits both the U.S. and Indian economies," said Sukumar Rajah, who helps manage $3.8 billion at Templeton Asset Management.