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The Honolulu Advertiser

Posted on: Saturday, November 6, 2004

O'ahu mayoral vote shifted in West

 •  Chart: More districts won by Hannemann in general election

By Gordon Y.K. Pang
Advertiser Capitol Bureau

In the wake of a bruising, down-to-the-wire battle for Honolulu mayor, an analysis of the votes shows O'ahu starkly divided politically along clear geographical lines.

Duke Bainum


Mufi Hannemann

Mayor-elect Mufi Hannemann eked out his 1,355-vote win Tuesday by capturing a majority of the votes in all but one of the state House districts west of Nu'uanu. Rival Duke Bainum managed only to hang onto votes in Windward O'ahu and most of East Honolulu, losing critical support in Central and Leeward O'ahu.

A surge in voter registration driven by the close presidential race appears to have benefited Hannemann, who had trailed his opponent by 5,914 votes in the primary.

When all general election votes were counted, Hannemann made up his early shortfall, gaining traction in the districts he had captured in the primary and winning support in areas that had been solidly Bainum country.

Other key findings about the mayor's race emerge from an Advertiser analysis of the Nov. 2 vote:

• Seven of the 35 state House districts on O'ahu "flipped" their allegiances, with six that voted for Bainum in the primary favoring Hannemann in the general. One district went for Bainum in the general after siding narrowly with Hannemann in the primary.

• Even in many of the districts he lost, Hannemann's numbers improved when compared to Bainum's.

• Nearly two out of every three precincts on O'ahu won by President George Bush also went to Hannemann. Democrat Sen. John Kerry's precincts were split almost evenly between Bainum and Hannemann.

While East Honolulu with its affluence and higher concentrations of Caucasian and Japanese voters has been Bainum's stronghold, his primary numbers had showed strength in such westward areas as Mililani, Makakilo and Wahiawa. But that strength evaporated between the primary and general elections.

Political consultant and pollster Don Clegg, who did some work for Hannemann in the election, noted three of the six House districts won by Hannemann included Mililani-Waipio and Kapolei-Makakilo. Both are comparatively new communities that pundits have found difficult to define because they have not established any clear patterns of voting.

A fourth district, 'Ewa Beach and West Loch, which was considered evenly split between the two candidate by election watchers, sided with Hannemann in the general.

Hannemann said his campaign concentrated a lot of effort in those key neighborhoods and said he felt he presented a better solutions to important problems in the district, such as transportation and crime.

"My solutions were much more realistic and believable," Hannemann said yesterday. Hannemann said he believes he's had a better track record of helping those communities, citing his effort in creating a new 'Ewa Development Plan while heading the City Council's Planning Committee.

Andrew Winer, a Bainum campaign adviser, agreed the growing Mililani and Kapolei areas proved a critical part of the campaign.

"The thing that we believed, going in, was that the area we called 'New Central O'ahu,' which is like Mililani, Kapolei and 'Ewa, would be our battlegrounds," Winer said. "We thought it was going to be close and that what needed to happen at the end of the day was we needed to carry those particular districts."

At Holomua Elementary School, a polling location in the 'Ewa Beach-West Loch district where Bainum and Hannemann voters split their votes in the primary, slightly more voters cast their ballots for Hannemann on Tuesday.

Troy Bantolina, 36, a communications company field technician, was among those supporting Hannemann. "I like the way he ran his campaign," Bantolina said.

Warehouse manager Carlos Garcia, 39, said he voted for Hannemann, too, because "he has more of a vision."

But Mark Fender, a 44-year-old management analyst, saw things differently and voted for Bainum. "He seems to have a more methodical plan for the city itself," Fender said.

The high voter turnout helped both campaigns, but Hannemann may have reaped more of the benefit from heightened interest in the general election.

On Tuesday, 294,531 people cast their votes for either Bainum or Hannemann or 66.1 percent of those registered to vote on O'ahu. During the primary, only 41.5 percent, voted in the mayoral election.

Between the primary and the general, Hannemann's vote count increased by 69,675 votes, going from 78,268 votes in the primary to 147,943 in the general. Bainum's vote count increased by 62,406 votes, going from 84,182 votes to 146,588 votes.

Hannemann won the general by a slim margin, receiving 50.2 percent of the votes to Bainum's 49.8 percent.

Even in those areas where Bainum was strongest, Hannemann narrowed the gap. In Hawai'i Kai-Kalama Valley, for instance, Bainum received 52.9 percent of the vote in the primary to Hannemann's 38.1 percent, with the rest going to former Mayor Frank Fasi or other candidates. But in the general, Bainum received 55.2 percent of the count while Hannemann climbed to 44.8 percent.

"I think that some of the numbers we had in East Honolulu and urban Honolulu were not as good as we had hoped," Winer said.

Clegg, who analyzed the numbers in both the presidential and mayoral races, said while Hannemann appeared to do well in precincts won by both Bush and Kerry, the mayor-elect fared particularly well among those who voted to re-elect the president.

Both Hannemann and Bainum are registered Democrats but the mayor's race in Honolulu is non-partisan.

Of the 95 precincts won by Bush, Hannemann won 61 while Bainum won only 34. The precincts won by Kerry were fairly evenly divided with Hannemann taking 59 and Bainum capturing 63, Clegg said.

The veteran political watcher said those results were surprising to him. "In my previous pollings, it seemed like the people who were more Republican-oriented were going for Bainum rather than Hannemann," he said.

One explanation is there were no contested Republican primaries compared to the many primary battles that took place between the Democrats. As a result, many GOP faithful stayed home in September but came out to vote last Tuesday.

In the last month, a group consisting of Republicans also ran a series of advertisements supporting Hannemann.

"One might say Republicans got Hannemann elected," Clegg said.

Reach Gordon Y.K. Pang at gpang@honoluluadvertiser.com or at 525-8070.