Posted on: Saturday, November 6, 2004
EDITORIAL
Mideast minus Arafat: opportunity amid peril
As the world begins to consider the prospects in a Middle East without Yasser Arafat, the looming question is whether the region's players can recognize an opportunity without first resorting to even worse violence.
The key to the roadmap for peace remains a viable Palestinian state next to a secure Israel. This international blueprint was frustrated by Arafat, yet its outlines couldn't have taken shape without him.
Arafat dominated Palestinian politics for almost four decades — even in the last two years, when he was confined to his shell-pocked home in Ramallah. He seemed a determined, enigmatic, corrupt thug to outsiders; an outright terrorist to most Israelis; and, to long-suffering Palestinians, the father of their stateless nation and the symbol of all they hope for.
That's because Arafat, protective of his status, had never prepared a path of succession. That oversight could easily lead to civil war among opposing factions, such as Hamas and Fatah. Armed gangs, already in control of some villages and cities, make prolonged violence all too likely.
"We cannot be sure the leaders of armed groups and Islamist groups will subject themselves to a new leader," Hala Mustafa, an analyst at the Al Ahram Center for Strategic and Political Studies in Cairo told the Christian Science Monitor this week. "If there is no strong leadership capable of unifying and dealing decisively with the security disorder, I think the whole scene will be one of turmoil."
Israelis must resist the urge to use turmoil or a power vacuum to divide and conquer. Occupation of Palestinian lands has proved a bloody albatross for Israel. An independent Palestine with strong leaders is the somewhat counterintuitive key to Israeli security.
President Bush must help the Israelis see the wisdom not only of restraint, but of active assistance in helping new leadership emerge.
Leadership other than Arafat was a requirement, in the eyes of Bush and Israel's Ariel Sharon, for resumption of peace talks. The evacuation of Israeli settlements and the establishment of a Palestinian state are key to realization of Arafat's dream.
Without Arafat, all that will be possible.
