Democrats keep clout in Hawai'i

Election 2004 Get detailed results from the general election and read about the races and candidates in our Election 2004 special report.

By Jerry Burris
Advertiser Editorial Page Editor

If Republican states are red and Democratic states are blue, what is Hawai'i? Purple?

That's a question folks will be discussing for a long time to come following Tuesday's dramatic general election. What is the political color of Hawai'i as it moves into the middle of its fifth decade as a state?

Following Linda Lingle's victory in the governor's race two years ago, there was natural speculation that 40-plus years of Democratic hegemony had come to an end.

The speculation rested on more than Lingle's victory, propelled in part by nominally Democratic voters who simply felt their party had run out of steam and it was time for a change.

It was also based on changing demographics. The old-time plantation-era Democrats were dying out and their successor generations were less focused on party loyalty and more on their own interests, primarily those of the pocketbook variety.

If it wasn't a "revolution" such as that that started the Democrats on their long march of success in the 1950s, it was at least a time when the GOP had an equal shot at success if they had the right candidate and the right message.

And indeed that might turn out to be the case. But this election demonstrated most clearly that some of the old Democratic Party clout remains.

The presidential race was a classic example. Polls leading up to the election showed Republican George Bush and Democrat John Kerry virtually tied in Hawai'i. Astounding! What is the world coming to?

For the first time in years, one could hear the word "Hawai'i" falling from the lips of those national political commentators on television.

Well, as it turns out, Kerry won handily in Hawai'i and for the most traditional of reasons. While the Democrats and Republicans were quite close on O'ahu, the Neighbor Islands went strongly for the Democrats.

That was the same core voter base that Democrats have relied on for years in statewide contests. The polls simply aggregated statewide numbers, disguising the value of those Neighbor Islanders.

Further, the polls showed substantial numbers of "undecided" voters, many of whom came from traditional Democratic blocs such as Neighbor Islanders and AJA voters.

The bones of a Democratic victory in the presidential race were always there for those who cared to look.

Then there is the Legislature, where the Republicans — despite a determined effort from the governor on down — actually lost seats. Republicans will point out, correctly, that many of those losses were by very slim margins.

But losses they were. It's one thing to lose an open seat, but the GOP also gave up several seats occupied by competent, well-known incumbents.

There were hopes in the Republican camp that this would be a watershed year for their party. The real test of this theory, this hope, will come two years from now when Lingle faces re-election.