Posted on: Thursday, November 11, 2004
Kerry vote may have swung state seats
| • | Map (opens in new window): Democrats gain House seats in general election |
By Gordon Y.K. Pang
Advertiser Capitol Bureau
Sen. John Kerry won five of the six state House districts that Hawai'i Democrats snatched from the Republicans in last week's general election, according to precinct-by-precinct breakdowns of the vote totals.
That lends credence to the argument by both Democratic and Republican observers that the Democrats' all-out voter drive in the waning weeks of the campaign season not only helped Kerry win Hawai'i's four electoral votes, but also had a profound impact on the results of local races.
The Democrats now hold 41 of the 51 House seats, while the Republicans' share dropped from 15 to 10. That's the biggest majority the Democrats, who have held a majority in the House since 1954, have enjoyed in more than a decade. The results were especially disheartening for Gov. Linda Lingle and the Republican party officials who pushed hard to advance their caucus from 15 to 18, enough to block any attempts by the Democrats to override her vetoes.
Brennon Morioka, chairman the Hawai'i Republican Party, said The Advertiser's analysis confirmed his suspicions about the correlation between the presidential numbers and the House results.
"A lot of where we had our losses was where Kerry really had a large turnout," Morioka said. "It wasn't like our Republicans didn't turn out to vote. It's just that the Democratic side just turned out even more and that's the name of the game."
One of the biggest surprises was that of the six seats the Republicans lost, three were on the Neighbor Islands. A Democratic stronghold for decades, the GOP had appeared to make gains through 2002 when Lingle won both Hawai'i and Maui counties and four of 16 House members were in its hands.
In District 6 (Kailua, Keauhou), Democratic newcomer Josh Green scored 54.3 percent of the vote against first-time Republican incumbent Mark Jernigan. In the same Big Island district, Kerry won with 51.9 percent. Two years ago, Lingle swamped former Democratic Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono by winning 70.1 percent.
The same happened on Maui, where first-time Democratic candidate Kam Tanaka edged first-term GOP incumbent Brian Blundell in District 10 (W. Maui) by 56 votes and Kyle Yamashita upset Kika Bukoski in District 12 (Upcountry Maui) by 638 votes. Only two years ago, Bukoski beat Yamashita by about 1,340 votes. Kerry won both of those Maui districts with more than 60 percent of the vote, a reversal from the 2002 governor's race when Lingle won both districts handily.
On O'ahu, first-time Democratic candidate Lyla Berg bested veteran GOP Rep. Bertha Leong in District 18 (Kahala, 'Aina Haina, Kuli'ou'ou). Her 5,736 total votes were only slightly off from the 5,703 votes that Kerry got in the district. In 2002, Lingle's 6,315 votes in the district were among the highest in the state.
District 49 (Kane'ohe, Maunawili, Enchanted Lake) featured close races in both the House and presidential races. Democrat Pono Chong beat veteran Republican incumbent David Pendleton by a 5,131-5,008 margin while Kerry beat Bush, 5,241-5,165. In 2002, Lingle beat Hirono 5,860-3,695.
Only in District 37 (Mililani, Waipi'o) was the Republican House incumbent knocked off despite Bush having beaten Kerry. Democrat Ryan Yamane beat Guy Ontai by more than 400 votes while Bush defeated Kerry by 200 votes. Two years ago, Lingle beat Hirono in the district by nearly 1,000 votes.
Morioka said he's not that surprised that the Mililani-Waipi'o district went with both the Republican Bush and Democrat Yamane.
"It's what we consider a swing district," he said. "There's a lot of unanticipated results that can be expected."
Josh Wisch, House caucus campaign coordinator for the Hawai'i Democrats, said that although it may be true that Kerry helped draw Democratic voters into the booth, it can also be said that the House candidates helped draw voters to help the presidential candidate. He noted that Green and Berg, for instance, actually got more votes than Kerry did.
Wisch said two other conclusions cannot be ignored when examining the numbers. "Hard work wins races, and Hawai'i is still a Democratic state."
Republicans managed to beat only one Democratic incumbent in the House — Romy Mindo in District 43 ('Ewa Beach, West Loch). In that district, Kymberly Pine trounced Mindo by capturing more than 60 percent of the vote. Bush won that district with about 59 percent. Lingle won the district by about 300 votes in 2002.
Reach Gordon Y.K. Pang at gpang@honoluluadvertiser.com or at 525-8070.
