Stores look to deals to boost 'Black Friday'

By Doris Hajewski
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

MILWAUKEE — Shoppers have been bombarded all month with coupons, 50 percent off deals and doorbuster specials.

And it remains a good bet that many people will line up before dawn tomorrow on the holiday season's "Black Friday" selling blitz to snare a DVD player or a flat-screen TV at a rock-bottom price.

"This is an effort to start momentum early," New York retail analyst Walter Loeb said of the early-bird pricing. "They lose money on it, because the selling price is almost at cost."

Retailers hope that bargain hunters won't just grab the deals and head back to bed. Strong sales early in the holiday shopping season make it less likely that they will be forced to slash prices in December. Retailers dubbed the day "Black Friday" because strong sales put many stores "in the black" profitwise.

Although surveys show that about 30 percent of consumers expect to shop on the day after Thanksgiving, that number is down from past years, apparently because of skittishness about sales.

Those saying they plan to shop tomorrow is the lowest in a decade, said Britt Beemer, head of America's Research Group.

Beemer's survey found that even fewer, about 26 percent, plan to shop on Saturday and Sunday. In the past decade, the Friday number has been as high as 45 percent, he said.

Beemer attributes the decline to a feeling on the part of shoppers that, aside from "doorbuster specials," the markdowns won't be attractive enough.

"Last year, consumers didn't see 50 percent off, and they said, 'I'm not going to fight the crowds,"' Beemer said.

It's the perennial shopper's dilemma: whether to buy early or wait out the season in hopes of getting a better price later, when retailers slash prices.

This year, retailers started holiday promotions early, to coax shoppers to buy before Thanksgiving. At the same time, they've tightened inventories to avoid getting stuck with a lot of unsold sweaters and mittens after Christmas.

"It looks like the tactics used the day after Thanksgiving can be used at other times," said Richard Hastings, retail sector analyst for Bernard Sands in New York, noting that the strong sales reported by retailers in October may have had something to do with early holiday shopping.

Seventy-six percent of consumers say they will have started their holiday shopping by this weekend, including 43 percent who started by October, according to a survey from the National Retail Federation.

Despite the early sales, people waiting until tomorrow to start shopping shouldn't feel they've missed out on the bargains.

Electronics is high on most lists of hot gift categories.

Best Buy is expected to do especially well. "They do the best advertising," said William Cody, director of the Baker Retailing Initiative at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business. "They really focus on getting people inside the store."

Mass marketers and department stores are also targeting electronics customers. Wal-Mart uses TVs and DVD players as doorbuster specials. And ShopKo beefed up its electronics offering this year as part of its renovation program.