This year is looking "awfully strong," said Frank Haas, director of tourism marketing for the Hawaii Tourism Authority. "Either it will be a record or it will be close to a record," he said. "A lot depends on December. December is a big month for the Japanese — the marathon, the year-end travel."

About 6.93 million visitors are expected to come to Hawai'i this year, according to the latest forecast by the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism. That's just shy of the 6.95 million visitor record in 2000.

Visitor arrivals through September totaled nearly 5.2 million, short of the 5.3 million visitors that came to Hawai'i during the same period in 2000.

State chief economist Pearl Imada Iboshi said the beginning of the year was relatively soft but picked up in the summer. July and August visitor arrivals beat the numbers Hawai'i saw during the same months in 2000, and domestic arrivals set new monthly records through much of the year.

Officials pointed to a strong U.S. economy, improving economic conditions in Japan, and Hawai'i's image as an exotic yet safe destination as among the factors contributing to the state's tourism growth. And they expect the momentum to carry Hawai'i's tourism industry to another banner year in 2005.

DBEDT forecasts 7.14 million visitors in 2005.

"Based on what we've seen from the Japanese side, we expect that to improve next year, and with the Japanese economy doing much better and the yen being so strong, I think prospects are good for a strong year for Japanese visitors," Imada Iboshi said.

Imada Iboshi also noted that an increased number of airline seats from the Mainland and Canada, as well as continued strength in the U.S. economy and a strong marketing program that is focusing on the U.S. East market as a potential area of growth have helped the tourism industry.

"All the visitor metrics are pointing up this year," said Kelvin Bloom, president of Aston Hotels & Resorts. "Visitor arrivals are up, occupancy on each of the islands is up, our average daily room rates have strengthened over last year and total room revenue is second best on record. And with that as the backdrop, I expect we'll finish this year not unlike our experience thus far with similar level of vibrancy."

Keith Vieira, senior vice president of Starwood Hotels & Resorts Hawai'i, said while airline seats to Hawai'i are still not up to pre-Sept. 11 levels, they continue to increase. And since Sept. 11, the industry has seen a clear desire for people to put more emphasis on the importance of vacation and bonding with family and friends, he said.

Vieira said time-shares have also prompted more high-end travelers to visit Hawai'i more often and stay longer.

"So you put enough of these good things on top of each other, and I think Hawai'i is going to continue to improve," he said.

Visitor spending, a significant — and sometimes preferred — industry indicator, is up 6.5 percent over last year at $7.68 billion through September. The total visitor expenditures figure was $10.9 billion in 2000, the second-highest expenditure level after $11.1 billion in 1995.

Gov. Linda Lingle's tourism liaison Marsha Wienert said she also expects a boost when NCL America begins interisland cruises on its second U.S.-flagged cruise ship in July.

"The bottom line is I think that 2004 will be an exceptional year for Hawai'i and will probably, especially in the domestic market, beat all previous years in regards to visitor arrivals and visitor days, and definitely where spending is concerned," she said. "Our length of stay is down a little bit this year, but we made up for it in the arrivals."

Wienert said there is pent-up demand for travel from the U.S. Mainland, as well as reluctance to travel internationally.

"And where else can you go that's almost international or foreign in nature but still a part of the U.S.?" she said.

Wienert and other tourism officials acknowledge that such customers may eventually opt for other locations as they grow more comfortable traveling outside the United States. But they expect that those visitors will be replaced by other tourists, such as those coming to Hawai'i for the first time.

"We have strong marketing programs going on in the U.S. and those that may be traveling internationally might be considered our repeat visitors as well, so it's incumbent on us to really look at those first-timers," Wienert said. "And a lot of the marketing programs are practically put together for that first-time visitor."

Chicago residents Keith McCawley and Rick Shepherd, who were visiting Hawai'i for the first time this week, said they want to return and explore the Islands more. They arrived here on a cruise from Mexico, which didn't give them enough time to fully experience Hawai'i, they said.

"It's wonderful," said McCawley, a 40-year-old regulatory compliance manager. "It is relaxing. People are relaxed without seeming indifferent. ... Here people are warm."

Added Shepherd, a 41-year-old social worker: "The cliches are true. It's beautiful."

Some concerns lie ahead, however. In addition to the threat of terrorism and increased competition among vacation destinations, there is also uncertainty in the airline industry.

"Certainly this is one of the most volatile times as far as the airline industry is concerned and that's a huge factor," Bloom said. "Between the volatility and the price of oil and the lack of profitability of almost all of the major carriers serving Hawai'i, I think that's the X factor."

Vieira acknowledged these concerns but noted that future opportunities to market Hawai'i lie in places such as China that have not yet been tapped.

"There are a lot of positive opportunities on the horizon, so as long as we don't get greedy or get too cocky about ourselves. ... I think we should see growth."