East O'ahu neighborhoods with the highest income levels strongly favored Bainum, while those on the Leeward Coast and with the lowest incomes backed Hannemann, the data indicate. Middle-class voters, including those in several neighborhoods around the island's center, split between the two.

Votes along ethnic lines were less distinct, especially in areas with diverse populations. But Bainum carried several areas with the highest proportion of Japanese and Caucasian voters, while Hannemann carried those with the highest ratio of Native Hawaiians.

Support was more mixed among neighborhoods with the most Filipino residents.

Longtime Kalihi resident Rosalinda Menoza seemed to mirror the sentiments of her neighbors yesterday when she pondered the outcome of the mayor's race.

Menoza likes the fact that Bainum is spending his own money on the campaign. She also thinks the fact that he's a doctor is favorable. "But then, maybe Bainum is too busy and doesn't have time. Maybe Mufi can keep his mind focused on Kalihi," she said.

Campaign officials scrutinize such information to determine where to focus their resources during a limited amount of time, said University of Hawai'i political science professor Ira Rohter.

In Hawai'i, affluent Japanese and Caucasian voters generally participate in elections more than other groups, so their support is very valuable to candidates, he said. "You don't have to push them as much, but as you go down the social and economic scale, you have to work harder," Rohter said.

In that sense, Hannemann has some strong opportunities but could face an uphill battle, according to Rohter.

Mufi Hannemann and Duke Bainum, who participated in a debate at the Hawai'i Theatre last month, hope to sway voters in a forum today. Advertiser library photo • Sept. 9, 2004

Bainum received nearly 6,000 more votes than Hannemann in the primary. But voter turnout is expected to be significantly higher in the Nov. 2 general election, and the race could tip in either direction.

Groups of voters who may be key to deciding the outcome include Republicans, those not aligned with a political party, and those of Filipino ancestry, according to campaign advisers.

Campaign signs in Kalihi were running more or less even for both candidates. The home at 1450 Middle St. featured five Bainum signs exclusively. Next door, at 1454 Middle, a half-dozen Hannemann signs were lined up across the fence.

"I like Mufi," said Sam Silva, 64, who was relaxing in his garage at the home on the corner of Middle and Notley streets. "I grew up right here at this residence in Kalihi, but moved to Guam. We haven't been back long enough to register to vote, but we support Mufi."

When asked what Bainum could do to gain his support, Silva said: "I'm a senior citizen now, so if Duke said he'd return the free bus rides for seniors, I'd be in favor of him."

The mayoral race is officially nonpartisan, and both candidates are Democrats. But they're both courting Republican voters, who are expected to show a heavy turnout on Nov. 2 because the ballot includes presidential candidates and contested seats in the state Legislature.

"Clearly, it's going to be very important to us," Hannemann adviser Trudi Saito said of the Republican vote. "They've been noted to come out more in every general election. It's one of the factors we're going to be looking at to make sure that we get our fair share of their votes."

Hannemann stresses that he is a fiscal conservative backed by business groups and some well-known Republican lawmakers who represent neighborhoods where Bainum received strong support in the primary.

"I think we have our work cut out for us, but in the end, East Honolulu will see that I'm exactly the kind of person they need there," Hannemann said. "We're all in this together, whether you're from Leeward O'ahu or East Honolulu. We're one island."

Bainum said that he's also a fiscal conservative and that he believes his theme of bringing "honest change" to city government will resonate strongly among Republicans and others.

Andy Winer, a top adviser to Bainum, said voters with no party affiliation are very important. Up to one-fourth of the people voting on O'ahu in the general election will be independents, he said. "They're scattered everywhere, but our belief is that they tend to be centered in the districts where Duke did best," Winer said.

Bainum said he'll make a strong pitch for those votes.

"My career is based on independence and doing the right things for the right reasons," he said.

Bainum said he's not overly concerned with Hannemann's Republican and business endorsements.

"The endorsement I like is the one I saw on primary night," he said.

Hannemann said the fact that he did well in lower-income neighborhoods shows he's also a voice for independent-minded voters.

"I think it shows I'm an individual who stands up for the common people," he said. "Those who feel disenfranchised, left out, definitely identify with me —those who have to struggle financially to make ends meet and to pay rent, and who dream of owning their own home. On the other hand, I've fashioned myself in this campaign as someone who can truly identify with both ends of the spectrum."

Both candidates also are working to attract Filipino voters. In the primary, Hannemann did well in some predominantly Filipino areas, such as Kalihi. But Bainum attracted the most votes in other largely Filipino neighborhoods, including Waipahu.

Bobby Dajao, 71, has made up his mind to vote for Bainum. For him, the issue comes down to personalities.

"I've walked by Mufi and he didn't say anything," said Dajao, who was waiting yesterday at a bus stop in front of Raychel's Barber Shop in Kalihi. "Now, Duke, he stops and talks. 'Nice to see you; how are you doing?' So, that's why I will vote for him. I've been sign-waving for him."

Saito said she believes that many voters from immigrant families feel a kinship with Hannemann, whose family came to Hawai'i from Samoa shortly before his birth. "He came from an immigrant family that worked hard to put him through school, and I think they would more readily identify with him," she said.

Winer said Bainum's work as a physician has also resonated strongly with Filipino voters, many of whom work in the healthcare industry.

"When Duke was doing his medical residency here, a number of the physicians that he viewed as his mentors are prominent physicians in the Filipino community, and I think that was a huge leg up in terms of his introduction to the community," Winer said.

Back in Kalihi, Joe Lazo said he has campaigned for Bainum. But, after nearly four decades in Kalihi, he said he has enough of a sense of community to make an objective analysis.

Lazo said part of the problem is that both candidates are well-liked in the community, and it's difficult to differentiate between what they stand for.

"I will be honest with you," he said. "It all gets down to how each candidate campaigns in Kalihi in the next three weeks."

Bainum and Hannemann are scheduled to appear at a candidates' forum this afternoon at the Filipino Community Center in Waipahu. The forum, to be broadcast live on KNDI radio (AM 1270), is sponsored by the National Federation of Filipino American Associations.