That's bad news for drought watchers and good news for surfers.

During El Niño conditions, rainfall decreases from December to March, there is a greater chance of late or out-of-season hurricanes, and north and northwest shores of all islands often receive large winter surf.

The last El Niño was in 1997-98, said Jim Weyman, meteorologist-in-charge of the National Weather Service forecast office in Honolulu.

"It shouldn't be as bad as the 1997-98 conditions," Weyman said today. "That was one of the strongest in history. This is weak compared to that."

If the weather service is correct, the upcoming winter months will not see a repeat of last winter's soggy weather. Heavy rain this past winter was a distinct change after five years of drought, but did not significantly raise water levels in wells.

Federal, state and county officials throughout the state are evaluating the potential of a renewed drought, the weather service said.

The El Niño developed this summer in the central tropical Pacific. An El Niño occurs when ocean waters become warmer than normal for the area, causing an increase in cloudiness, air pressure and winds.

El Niño conditions generally last 18 months.

The weather service says hurricanes tend to form south of the Islands during El Niño years and do so later in the season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.