Winter weather forecast fuels fears of drought
By Suzanne Roig
Advertiser East Honolulu Writer
Little rain is forecast for Hawai'i this winter, making renewed drought a real threat for the state, according to the National Weather Service.
Seven steps to reducing water use by 10 percent: • Water lawns two to three times a week. • Don't water your lawn between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. • Check for leaks in plumbing and toilets. • Install water-efficient plumbing fixtures. • Take shorter showers. • Put a nozzle on the garden hose. • Don't let water flow from the faucet unused. Source: Honolulu Board of Water Supply
An El Nino weather pattern will mean drier weather after nine months of above-average rain fall on all islands, said James Weyman, meteorologist in charge at the Honolulu Forecast Office.
TIPS ON WATER
"It shouldn't be as bad as the 1997-98 conditions," Weyman said yesterday at a news conference. "That was one of the strongest (El Ninos) in history. This is weak compared to that."
An El Nino occurs when waters in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal, causing increased cloudiness, air pressure and winds.
El Nino conditions generally last 18 months.
In light of the forecast, the Board of Water Supply will again ask O'ahu residents to voluntarily reduce water use by 10 percent.
However, mandatory restrictions will not be ordered, said Tracy Burgo, Board of Water Supply spokeswoman.
"We're asking people to reduce water use by 10 percent across the board," Burgo said. "It's not that hard to achieve. We've been promoting seven easy ways to save water. If people do that, they will be able to achieve the 10 percent without any drastic changes."
But that could change, said Donna Kiyosaki, deputy manager for the water board.
"If it does turn out to be drier and we see it impacting our wells — and we will be monitoring them closely — we would definitely bring the public into this," Kiyosaki said yesterday.
This year's El Nino will lead to rainfall decreases from December to March from normal levels. Also, there is a greater chance of late or out-of-season hurricanes, and north and northwest shores of all islands may receive even larger winter surf, Weyman said.
Drought is particularly rough on the state's farmers and ranchers. The most recent drought that began in 1998 and ended in 2003 hit cattle ranchers hard. Ranchers' revenues declined during the drought and even afterward as they worked to restore their herds.
Ranchers have to purchase feed for livestock when there is no forage food available, said Sumner Erdman, president of Ulupalakua Ranch Inc.
"While a drought has an effect on all of the people of Hawai'i by causing a lack of water, it has a lasting negative economic effect upon the cattle ranchers in Hawai'i," Erdman wrote in a statement.
Federal, state and county officials are evaluating the potential for renewed drought and the ways to respond. Five years ago the state established the Hawai'i Drought Council to help the counties prepare for a drought, said Neal Fujii, state drought coordinator.
"Drought is one of the toughest problems for us to deal with," said Ed Teixeira, vice director of the Hawai'i state Civil Defense. "There's nothing that can be done overnight."
Flash floods pose another concern. The dry conditions and lack of vegetation can make for increased runoff when it does rain and low-lying areas flood quickly. Drought also increases the threat of wildfires, Teixeira said.
The dry conditions expected for this year follow the wettest winter in 30 years. Mount Wai'ale'ale recorded 310 inches of rain, from January to September and even the usually dry Wai'anae area had 25 inches, or 96 percent above normal, Lana'i City was 91 percent above normal and Wailuku 92 percent.
Reach Suzanne Roig at sroig@honoluluadvertiser.com or 395-8831.
