"We probably will see an increase in violence," said Col. Lloyd Miles, who commands the 2nd Brigade Combat Team. "From the enemy's perspective, elections are a very threatening thing. The more signs of normalcy and stability that can be achieved nationally, the less tenable their position looks to be. So I think they will really try hard to prevent the elections from occurring."

The north-central region of Iraq — including the country's fourth-largest city, Kirkuk, with 750,000 people — stands in contrast to the violence in cities such as Ar Ramadi, Fallujah and Baghdad in the Sunni Triangle to the south where U.S. troops increasingly are being killed in firefights and ambushes or by vehicle or roadside bombs.

"It (the Kirkuk region) is certainly more stable than when we first arrived," said Miles, who was able to take time out to provide an update on the Hawai'i-based troops. "(At first), the population was a little negative to neutral, at least in this province, and I would assess it to be neutral to a little positive now."

Miles said violence is down. There were three spikes: in April, part of a surge across the country; in July, after the transfer of limited sovereignty; and in September, with two suicide car bombings.

On April 7, the "Wolfhounds" of the 1st Battalion, 27th Infantry, engaged in a daylong street fight in the Sunni Arab city of Huwijah in which 11 Schofield soldiers were wounded, 35 enemy forces were killed, and a like number were wounded.

It remains the biggest firefight the Schofield combat team has been in.

"But outside of those events, the violence has been relatively low," Miles said by phone from Tikrit. The "Warrior" brigade is based at Kirkuk Air Base about 150 miles north of Baghdad.

Still, there have been five deaths within Miles' brigade and 113 soldiers wounded. Also, a member of the Air Force working with the brigade was killed, as was an interpreter. Two other Schofield soldiers killed in Iraq with the 84th Engineer Battalion were not part of the 2nd Brigade Combat Team.

Miles said most of the wounded have returned to duty.

"They had shrapnel wounds or something, but after removing the shrapnel, they were able to go back to work after a period of recovery," he said. "Probably 75 percent of those individuals are returned to duty."

The Schofield fatalities are fewer than those experienced by another 2nd Brigade — that of the 2nd Infantry Division out of South Korea. The unit, assigned to the area west of Baghdad, has seen 10 soldiers killed since it deployed in August, including two soldiers with Hawai'i ties:

Pfc. Joshua K. Titcomb, 20, who grew up in Wai'anae, was wounded on Sept. 29 in Ar Ramadi and died the next day;

Pvt. 2 Jeungjin "Nikky" Kim, 23, of Honolulu, was killed on Oct. 6, also in Ar Ramadi.

About 4,500 Schofield soldiers are serving in Iraq, the majority of them with the 2nd Brigade Combat Team. Most of the soldiers left Hawai'i in January, and the Warrior brigade took over for the 173rd Airborne Brigade in Kirkuk on Feb. 19.

The 1st Battalion, 21st Infantry "Gimlets," and the 1st Battalion, 14th Infantry "Golden Dragons," remain in Kirkuk, while the 1-27 Wolfhounds continue to have the toughest fight in Huwijah 40 miles to the southwest, a Sunni Arab stronghold where residents greet American soldiers with cold stares, in contrast to the friendly waves from Kurds in Kirkuk.

"It's better than when we first got here. Huwijah is a different area. It's 99 percent Sunni Muslim but, if you compare it to the rest of the Sunni Triangle, it is actually very stable. We don't have many incidents there," Miles said.

The local government is functioning, he said, and there is cooperation with U.S. forces. Walking patrols are possible, and Miles said the number of direct, indirect and roadside bomb attacks is down.

Reconstruction has increased, and residents are recognizing progress in the town of 85,000 that Saddam Hussein once largely ignored, Miles said.

"Yeah, we have challenges that we have to continue to confront, and you can't take your eye off the ball there because, obviously, you don't want the insurgency to grow," he said.

Kirkuk's multiethnic population of Kurds, Arabs, Turkomen and Assyrians pose different challenges, and conflict among the groups is still seen as a possible flashpoint for civil war in the country.

Under Saddam's "Arabization" program, Kurds were displaced. Officials estimate that 72,000 refugees, mainly Kurds, have returned in the past 18 months, encouraged by Kurdish political parties, and creating tension with other ethnic groups.

August saw a spike in refugees arriving, but Miles said the Kurdish provincial government, with representation from all the ethnic groups, "really stepped up" by organizing two refugee camps.

"It really moved the process forward to resolve a potentially explosive issue into something that is at least manageable at this point," Miles said.

Miles said that even when there have been "spectacular" attacks like the September car bombings at a police academy and Iraqi National Guard headquarters — attempts to deter participation, with a loss of 39 Iraqi lives — the provincial forces responded with massive neighborhood searches for suspects.

"So they didn't scare them away at all," Miles said. "In fact, they just came out stronger, and they didn't have anybody quit."