"These are wonderful results, but we're going to work even harder now," Bainum said. "We take nothing for granted."

Hannemann's campaign said he remains undeterred, and is looking forward to the debate that will be televised live Tuesday evening.

"Our campaign organization is working overtime, and we're confident that with all that's going on, we're going to win the day," said Hannemann spokeswoman Elisa Yadao.

The poll by Ward Research Inc. of Honolulu suggests that voters who are independent, young, or of Filipino ancestry could be very important in deciding the mayor's race because many of those who did not vote in the Sept. 18 primary election say they'll vote on Nov. 2.

The overall poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points, meaning a survey of all O'ahu voters would not likely produce a result more than 4 percentage points above or below the poll's findings.

So Bainum's support could range from 44.3 percent to 52.3 percent, while Hannemann's could range from 35.9 percent to 43.9 percent — leaving the race statistically very close.

The poll, conducted Oct. 13 to Monday, found that Democrats slightly favored Bainum in the nonpartisan race, and that Republicans and independent voters backed him much more strongly.

Glenda Kaalakea, a 59-year-old nurse from Kalihi, said she's among the independent voters who will likely support Bainum. His promise to be a leader who won't engage in secret deals with insiders has a strong appeal, Kaalakea said.

"I think we have to look at the community, rather than certain special interest groups, because we all share community resources," she said.

The new mayor should focus more attention on repairing roads and enforcing traffic laws, and the number of bicycle paths should be increased, she said.

Alan Kida, a construction worker from Nu'uanu, said he voted for Frank Fasi in the primary and will support Hannemann on Nov. 2.

"I'm sure both of them are good, but I think Mufi has been trying and trying and trying, and we should give him a chance," said Kida, a 52-year-old Democrat. "Let's give the guy a chance. If he's not good, get him out in four years. I just believe he's going to be good."

Kida said he liked Fasi, who served as mayor for 22 years, because he was a "can-do guy" who took charge and got results.

Bainum won more than 45 percent of the primary vote, Hannemann won more than 42 percent, and Fasi won more than 9 percent.

Kida said he's tired of one element in the mayor's race: negative campaigning.

"They should just stick to the issues," he said. "Never mind about so-and-so did this or what. Just tell us what you're going to do. Everyone's tired of it already. Everybody hates it."

Lower-income voters, union members, and Native Hawaiians were more likely to support Hannemann, the poll found. Caucasian, Japanese and affluent voters swung toward Bainum.

The results largely mirrored those of the Sept. 18 primary election in terms of overall findings and the background of voters who supported each candidate, but there were some surprises.

The poll suggests that Filipino voters are more likely to support Bainum than had previously been apparent, and that voter turnout among Filipinos could increase significantly for the general election.

In the primary, each candidate carried neighborhoods with predominantly Filipino populations. The poll included 93 Filipino voters and found that 50.3 percent backed Bainum, while 32.8 percent backed Hannemann and 16.8 percent were undecided or declined to state their preference.

More than 39 percent of the Filipino voters surveyed said they had not voted in the primary but were very likely to go to the polls on Nov. 2.

"The biggest ethnic difference in who says they're going to vote in the general election, and who did not in the primary, is Filipinos," said Ward Research president Rebecca Ward.

The number of young voters who participate in the general election could increase substantially, meaning they could make a big difference in deciding the mayor's race, the poll suggests.

The survey included 107 likely voters younger than 35, and more than half of them said they had not voted in the primary.

Young voters split their support almost evenly between Bainum and Hannemann, while older voters tended to back Bainum more strongly.

The number of voters who don't belong to a political party could increase on Nov. 2, the poll suggests. More than 35 percent of the 86 independent voters surveyed said they had not voted in the primary.

Linda Tucker

Jan Kobashigawa

Isaiah Delsi

"I want somebody who is going to do something, not just talk," she said. "Everyone should have a bed and warm place to go (to) when it's raining. I haven't heard either one saying too much about that. Even if it means spending more money, build the shelters."

Jan Kobashigawa, 28, a hairdresser from 'Ewa Beach, is also independent and undecided, but is leaning toward Hannemann "because he's a local guy."

"He grew up in Kalihi and knows what it's like and what the problems are on the west side," she said.

Traffic congestion is one of her main concerns.

"I don't want to let them build any more houses until the roads have been built," she said. "I doubt if either candidate has ever even had to drive through 'Ewa Beach."

Isaiah Delsi, 27, said he's not impressed with either candidate.

"It seems to me they're both the same," said the restaurant manager from Mo'ili'ili. "I'm worried about the homeless and the (crystal methamphetamine) problem, but nobody can say what they're going to do. It sounds cynical and jaded, but it seems that all politicians are the same. Neither one seems like a stand-up guy, so it's hard to choose. ... I get the sense that nobody cares about people my age."

Addie Acain, a 48-year-old finance clerk from Manoa, said she's not very enthusiastic about either candidate but would likely support Bainum, whom she voted for in the primary.

"They both seem nice, but I'm not real gung-ho for either one," she said. "It just seems that Duke comes the closest to how I feel myself. He's the best of the worst. I'm worried about the homeless. You see them all around and nobody is doing anything for them. Somebody needs to find affordable housing. Rent is much too high."