COMMENTARY
Don't stop dreaming about the future, Hawai'i
By John Griffin
The future still lies ahead, to recoin the cliche. But, as "2001" author Arthur Clarke said long ago, "The future isn't what it used to be."
If so, what is Hawai'i going to do about working toward the kind of place we want in 2050?
That's what came to mind as I took part in a recent conference titled "Looking Back, Looking Forward: Planning for the New Century" put on by the University of Hawai'i's Department of Urban and Regional Planning.
Looking back in this case meant re-evaluating Hawai'i's 1970 Governor's Conference on the Year 2000, a months-long, world-pioneering process in which I was a spear carrier in the Hawai'i and Pacific Community task force.
One conclusion I reached was that the process was a success in sensitizing nearly 1,000 Hawai'i people on all islands who took part in that exercise of looking beyond our immediate horizons. International experts came here to help that process.
But, sadly, the ardor faded and ambitious follow-up measures got lost amid more immediate concerns of the 1970s. In fact, the most sobering part of this year's gathering was a film done by Wai'anae High School students titled "Looking Forward: Through the Eyes of Our Youth."
It was a brutally honest look at a part of Hawai'i replete with crime, drugs, homelessness, lack of good jobs, losing quality teachers, and overcrowding as the population grows.
"We got some of our worst possible scenarios," said UH futurist Jim Dator, referring to the predictions of conference task forces in 1970. Others agreed, with some stressing that we have to acknowledge failure even as we seek to bring about the rosier scenarios.
Still, despite the shortcomings since 1970, I would like to put in a plug for organized dreaming. It goes like this:
Everyone agrees we need long-range planning, looking ahead one or two decades, anticipating events, and setting out goals and ways to get there, including educating the public.
Futurism is a harder sell, in part because most people feel the distant future is unknowable, and much about Hawai'i (tourism, the military, etc.) is subject to outside forces.
But futurists don't claim to predict the future. Rather, they study history and current trends. Then they lay out scenarios of possible futures that can become goals to work for or something to try to avoid. It can be compatible with, or part of, planning.
Hawai'i statehood in 1959 was, to me, the product of a half-century of dreaming, planning and futuristic effort against odds. Those local efforts helped shape favorable outside forces. Hawaiian sovereignty, for a current example, might fit such a pattern.
Two quotes cited at the recent conference help make my point:
"If you want to predict the future, you have to create a future," said Futurist magazine. That stresses the idea of working toward some desired goal.
"If you don't know where you're going, you might end up somewhere else," said Yogi Berra, as noted by my panel mate at the recent conference, Family Court Judge Linda Luke. She was a UH student representative at the 1970 gathering.
I don't know if Hawai'i is ripe for another big governor's conference on the future. After all, the 1970 effort was special in several ways. It was a product of the tumultuous times, the 1960s generation gap, social upheaval, campus unrest, the Vietnam War and an unpopular president.
This new state was booming then with increasing jet arrivals, galloping tourism and development to the point that some were calling for population controls and limits to growth. The ruling establishment — including a mix of a far-seeing governor, youngish Democrats and some forward-looking business and media people — at least recognized a need for better perspective on the future.
Despite some parallels, these are different times. Perhaps a steady, incremental approach is called for.
Regardless, it seems Hawai'i and its people need what I would call "a futures' culture" — a mix of concern for the quality of life, new economic hopes, good long-range planning with some dramatic short-range implementation to keep people interested, plus a vision and goals for the Hawai'i of our grandchildren, something that recognizes we have some control and are not just a creature of those big outside forces.
As it was in the 1970 conference, the University of Hawai'i is a vital element today. Its Department of Urban and Regional Planning was not around in 1970 but, under chairman Kem Lowry, celebrated its 30th anniversary at the recent conference.
The department has trained all kinds of talented public and private planners. But I also see it as a kind of keeper of the flame in helping guide Hawai'i beyond the horizons we see now in this new century.
John Griffin, former editor of The Advertiser's editorial pages, is a frequent contributor.
