Isle survey reveals economic optimism
By Timothy Hurley
Advertiser Staff Writer
Given the rosy state of Hawai'i's economy, Philip White is feeling pretty good about his family's immediate financial future.
The Honolulu architect has seen his business pick up along with the state's booming construction and real-estate sector, and he sees nothing but improvement over the next year.
"We ate it for so long in Hawai'i. (The economy) was bound to come back," White said.
His optimism is captured in the results of the latest Ho-nolulu Advertiser Hawai'i Poll. Almost a quarter of those interviewed for the survey said the financial status of their family improved over the past year, while more than 37 percent said their economic situation promises to improve over the next year.
Only 15 percent of the 600 likely voters queried by Ward Research Inc. of Honolulu said they were worse off than a year ago and even fewer said they expected things to get worse next year. The statewide poll was conducted Oct. 13-18, and the margin of error is 4 percentage points.
The future is a bit more dicey when it comes to the fate of Social Security.
Hawai'i was divided right down the middle when asked, "Do you believe the Social Security system will be able to provide the payments you are expecting when you retire?" Forty-seven percent answered "no," while 46.3 percent said "yes," with 6.7 percent saying they didn't know.
For now, strong construction and real estate markets are leading Hawai'i's economy, offering job stability and income growth. Bankruptcy filings are the lowest since 1997, and the state's jobless rate hit a 13-year low in August.
Bekke Hess of Kailua, Kona, said she's taking advantage of rising real-estate values to help maintain her financial health after moving from California to the Big Island five years ago.
Hess, a former stock market financial adviser, said she used the equity in her first house to buy another home and then acquire three more properties with income from stock investments. She said she plans to sell one of her homes next year to pay off a loan.
Hess, 49, gives President Bush credit for helping her to pay less in taxes and to allow her to retire early a year and a half ago while living off her investments.
"Bush's tax cuts have helped a lot of folks," she said. "With more money to spend, there's more money in the economy, and more people are being hired."
On the other hand, higher prices are a byproduct of Hawai'i's growing economy, and an increase in the cost of living means that the purchasing power of many residents may remain flat this year as incomes fail to keep pace.
Indeed, almost 60 percent of Isle residents said their family's financial status hasn't changed in the past year, while nearly 45 percent feel their personal economic situation isn't likely to improve next year.
Kenneth Walsh of Kula, Maui, a former phone company employee who moved to Hawai'i from New York five years ago, said he expects his financial situation to remain the same in the next year if inflation doesn't erode too much of his mostly fixed income from Social Security disability.
Still, Walsh, the father of a 10-year-old and four adult children who live on the East Coast, admits to having apprehension about what could happen to the economy.
"You've got to hold on to what you have, because you never know what's going to happen," he said.
Nicky Uehara, a teacher at Wai'anae High School, said her personal finances took a dive last year after she separated from her husband. But she expects the outlook to improve next year when she obtains her master's degree in education.
Education is truly the key, said Uehara, who urges her students to aim higher than a high school diploma.
"One of the things they don't have here (in Hawai'i) is an emphasis on education," she said.
On the Mainland, when someone asks you about your school, you tell them what college you went to, she said. Here it's high school.
"They don't think beyond high school. They are not taught to plan for the future," Uehara said.
Janice Snyder said her financial situation has improved over last year, but not in the way she would have liked. Her husband, Frank Snyder, a soldier with the 65th Engineer Battalion at Schofield Barracks, is serving in Iraq and his paycheck reflects the higher hazard pay.
Frank Snyder is due home in January. Until then, Janice will continue to care for their 16-month-old son in their Helemano Military Reservation home.
While they're doing OK financially, Snyder said she and her husband worry more about his family in an economically depressed region of Pennsylvania.
"They're suffering. They've been hit hard with factories closing and lost jobs," she said.
Robert Fujikawa, a 49-year-old resource teacher at Momilani Elementary School in Pearl City, said his finances remained about the same as last year and he expects about the same next year.
"Am I happy? No," he said. "The Legislature promised a bonus to teachers with master's degrees (or the equivalent), but they didn't come through."
On the question of whether Social Security will meet his expectations, 58-year-old Reginald Sabagala of Waimea Bay said he doubts it.
"There are so many people living over the age of 70. People are living longer, and there isn't enough money. It's sad," he said.
Snyder said she's not counting on Social Security, either.
"There's definitely going to have to be an individual plan," she said. "There's no way I'm going to rely on that."
Reach Timothy Hurley at (808) 244-4880 or thurley@honoluluadvertiser.com.
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