Posted on: Thursday, October 28, 2004
VOLCANIC ASH
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By David Shapiro
The politician with perhaps the most to gain or lose in next Tuesday's election isn't even on the ballot.
Gov. Linda Lingle has put her political prestige on the line in an attempt to win Republican control of the state House of Representatives — or at least enough GOP votes to uphold her vetoes.
In what she hopes isn't an omen, three of Lingle's five candidates for the Board of Education already lost in the primary election.
The results of the legislative races will be the closest Lingle gets to a report card from voters midway through her term as Hawai'i's first Republican governor in 40 years.
It will answer a longstanding question about Lingle: Is her popularity with voters strictly personal, or does she have the coattails to lead a broader movement for change in Hawai'i?
Advertiser library photo • Jan. 21, 2003 Lingle can expect a veto-proof Democratic Legislature to continue to chip away at the governor's powers to make appointments to state agencies, control spending and manage government operations.
Republicans would have to pick up 11 more House seats from their current 15 to reach the majority of 26 needed to control the House for the first time in a half-century, an unlikely scenario.
But gaining three seats for the 18 needed to uphold Lingle's vetoes of Democratic bills is quite achievable.
The GOP lost four seats in 2002 that they will try to regain, and they hope to close the gap in other races where they missed knocking off incumbent Democrats by a few hundred votes.
Success is vitally important to the governor if she hopes to become more of a factor in setting public policy during the final two years of her term.
If the Democrats retain their current super-majority, they'll continue to pass what they wish without seriously negotiating with Lingle on issues like school reform, drug abatement and public employee pay raises — and then force their will on her by overriding her vetoes.
If Republicans win enough new seats to stop veto overrides, Democrats will have to negotiate and compromise with the governor and GOP lawmakers if either side is to accomplish anything.
In this respect, Lingle's push in legislative elections is a test of how serious voters were about reforming the state government when they elected her on a platform promising sweeping change.
There's little she can change without a stronger hand in the Legislature.
Republican House candidates are running against the Hawai'i Government Employees Association as much as their Democratic opponents.
The state's largest public workers union is endorsing Democratic incumbents across the board without bothering to interview their Republican challengers, expressing confidence that state workers can continue to get what they want from a veto-proof Democratic Legislature.
In the last two legislative sessions, Democrats have given the HGEA binding arbitration in contract negotiations, and then approved their arbitrated pay raises — overriding Lingle's vetoes in both cases.
The HGEA, with its army of campaign workers it can turn out, is an estimable force in Legislature elections — the main reason Democrats were able to pick up four Republican House seats in 2002 even as Lingle was running away with the governorship.
To change the outcome this year, Lingle and GOP House candidates will have to persuade voters to be less comfortable with the virtually absolute control public workers hold over Democratic lawmakers.
David Shapiro, a veteran Hawai'i journalist, can be reached by e-mail at dave@volcanicash.net.
More importantly, if she fails to alter the balance of power in the House, she'll have little chance of getting her agenda past Democratic lawmakers in the next two years and will have to face re-election in 2006 with a spotty record of achievement.
Gov. Linda Lingle delivers her State of the State address before the 2003 Legislature as House Speaker Calvin Say, left, and Senate President Robert Bunda listen. Lingle hopes more members of the 2005 Legislature will be Republican.
