Posted on: Sunday, October 31, 2004

THE RISING EAST

By Richard Halloran

The U.S. election campaign, the most negative in living memory, will mercifully end Tuesday when voters go to the polls not only to decide between President Bush and Sen. John Kerry but also on a raft of security policies, including those that influence U.S. relations with Asia.

Disputes over the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and postwar endeavors there have dominated the debate to the neglect of almost every other security issue except for sporadic arguments over coping with North Korea's nuclear aspirations.

Even so, sifting through the candidates' statements turns up clues as to what a second Bush or a first Kerry administration would do in Asia and on issues such as alliances, nuclear proliferation and redeploying U.S. forces, all of which affect Asia.

Both the president and the senator are committed to forcing North Korea to give up its ambitions to acquire nuclear weapons, with their differences seeming to be more in style than substance.

The president insists on negotiating through the six-party talks arranged by China that also include South Korea, Japan and Russia. Direct U.S.-North Korea negotiations go on inside that format. The senator would emphasize bilateral negotiations but in the context of the six-party talks.

They differ, however, on making concessions to North Korea. Secretary of State Colin Powell made clear during his trip to Asia last week that the United States would remain firm in demanding that North Korea show good faith before anything more would be forthcoming from the United States.

Kerry appears to agree with China and South Korea, whose leaders urged Powell to take a more "flexible" stance toward North Korea — "flexible" seeming to be code for "appeasement."

On policy toward a China that is emerging as a political, economic and military powerhouse, Bush and Kerry have differed, but not on the same points.

Bush has been skeptical and vacillating on political relations with China while Kerry has been critical of the U.S. deficit in trade with China, which is headed for a record $150 billion this year. He also has criticized what he calls the export of U.S. jobs to China.

Differences show up, moreover, on the sensitive issue of Taiwan, the island over which China claims sovereignty. Bush cites the Taiwan Relations Act, which obligates the United States to help Taiwan defend itself. Kerry has advocated a "one-country, two systems" policy that would see Taiwan surrendering to China.

Bush would seem to have the upper hand in relations with Japan because he has cultivated personal relations with Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to the point where he has referred to that association in his campaign to assert that one-time enemies can become friends.

Kerry, in contrast, has no special connection with Japan. His policy statement says only that he would "strengthen America's already strong relationship with Japan."

The statement says much the same about U.S. relations with South Korea, with no recognition of the rising anti-Americanism in Seoul.

Of Southeast Asia, neither candidate appears to have set out a position, even though the Philippines and Thailand are allies and Singapore has become increasingly important to the United States. Terrorism, piracy and smuggling are expanding threats.

On wider issues, Bush has said he prefers to work within multinational alliances but has made clear that he would go it alone if potential allies bow out. Kerry has emphasized the need to act within alliances and through the United Nations.

The two candidates agree on the threat from the spread of nuclear weapons, especially in the hands of terrorists. They also agree on initiatives seeking to prevent that, with Kerry asserting that he would do a better job than the president.

Under Bush, the Pentagon has begun redeploying U.S. forces worldwide, including withdrawing 12,500 of the 37,000 in South Korea. Kerry has vigorously opposed most of those moves as being badly timed.

After a bitter campaign, the United States is likely to remain divided, no matter who wins the election, and that will affect policy toward Asia. If Bush is re-elected, Kerry will return to the Senate, where he will have a strong voice in opposing the president's policies.

If the senator wins, much will depend on whether he can carry fellow Democrats into the Congress. Today, the Republicans barely control the Senate but have a solid majority in the House. If that were to continue, President Kerry would face strong opposition.

Richard Halloran of Honolulu is a former New York Times correspondent in Asia. He wrote this article for The Advertiser.