With a new lease on political life, the trailing candidate would have six more weeks to raise and spend money campaigning to try to take the lead.

"Fasi is expected to pick up 8 to 10 percent, which is what we've seen in some recent elections," said Ho-nolulu pollster Rebecca Ward. "Figuring that into the mix, it would be very difficult for any one candidate to get 50 percent plus one."

That assumes the primary will be a close race between Bainum and Hannemann, and Fasi still has sufficient pull with voters. It's also possible that Bainum or Hannemann could win a decisive victory on Sept. 18, and that voters will overwhelmingly ignore Fasi, who is not running a very visible campaign.

But pollster Don Clegg also predicts there will be a runoff in November. Fasi is likely to win 7 percent to 8 percent of the vote in the primary, Clegg said.

"That means that either Duke or Mufi has to beat the other person by the same number of points (to avoid a runoff), and I think the race is a lot closer than that, so that would push it into the general election," Clegg said.

'Energizer bunny'

Frank Fasi, who ran Honolulu as mayor for 20 years, isn't cowed by his prospects in this race. "I will win by a landslide!" he said. Advertiser library photo

That hasn't stopped him from continuing to campaign for office — an activity he seems to genuinely enjoy — and he has been called the "Energizer bunny of Hawai'i politics."

Fasi has been a crowd pleaser at mayoral forums and debates this year, adding color and humor to events that might otherwise be dry or tense. But he has focused largely on past accomplishments and unlikely proposals he has floated before, such as turning the federal wildlife sanctuary of Midway Island into a resort casino.

He said he's frustrated with the tightly structured nature of the events because they don't provide enough time to raise important issues and explore them thoroughly.

"We've got problems, lots of problems, and they haven't been brought to the fore," he said. "The average person doesn't even realize how much money is needed. Where's the money going to come from?"

He said his casino plan may never work out, but that it's important to consider all potential sources of revenue.

Fasi has had fun zinging the other candidates with his trademark in-your-face style. But he isn't running anything close to a major competitive campaign. Still, if he's putting everyone on, he won't admit it.

"I will win by a landslide!" he thundered when asked about his chances.

The spoiler

Observers say Fasi will appeal to some voters because of name recognition or personal loyalty, nostalgia for the years he served as mayor, or simply because they're not impressed with the other candidates.

"There's a group of people that have long maintained a kind of connection with him that just keeps continuing," said Neal Milner, a political science professor at the University of Hawai'i.

"I think there's probably another group of people who are more distant from the race, kind of the equivalent of independents in other kinds of races," Milner said. "They may know less about the issues than others, and they attach themselves to a third candidate."

Among the voters who will support Fasi is Kapahulu resident Jim Hall, who once worked in Fasi's administration. Hall said he had nothing against Bainum or Hannemann but wouldn't snub his old friend Fasi.

"I certainly want to vote for him to at least show appreciation for the good things he did as mayor," Hall said. "His old campaign slogan was 'Fasi gets things done,' and he really did."

Viola Lewis, of 'Alewa Heights, was at Honolulu Hale on the first day of absentee walk-in voting to cast her ballot for Fasi.

"He's a fighter, and he takes a stand," Lewis said.

Fasi sums it up this way: "Know what you're voting for because you deserve what you get, and make sure that what you get is something that you're going to like. They know me, what I've done, and what my record is."

If Fasi helps force a runoff between Bainum and Hannemann, it's doubtful that Fasi supporters would migrate as a bloc to either of the others, Clegg said.

"It's not going to be, in my estimation, a major swing in one direction or the other," said Clegg, who has studied O'ahu voting patterns for many years. "But my feeling is that slightly more Fasi voters would go for Mufi than would go for Bainum."

Fasi tends to attract older voters with strong local roots, and they may feel more familiar with Hannemann than Bainum, Clegg said.

"Filipinos also supported Frank a lot," Clegg said. "And I think Mufi has a good following in the Filipino community as well."

But if Hannemann has an edge on gaining support from Fasi fans, that alone probably won't be enough help to ensure victory in a runoff, Clegg said.

"I don't think, by itself, it's enough of an edge to make a win, but it sure helps, because I think it is going to be a close race," he said.

Other candidates

Seven lesser-known candidates are also running: Daniel H. Cunningham, Theodore W. Gibson, Lillian Lai Lam Wang Hong, Paul Manner, Glenn Pinho, Mike Powers and Terrence Koichi Teruya. They may draw a total of 1 percent of the vote, but even such a small fraction can sometimes affect close races and help force a runoff, Clegg said.

The ballot for the general election in November will include presidential candidates, and that will increase voter turnout, he said. The presidential race could draw voters who would not participate in a strictly local election, including whites who recently moved here from the Mainland. That could benefit Bainum if those voters identify with him because of his ethnicity or Mainland roots, Clegg said.

But the presidential race will increase voter turnout from across the political and ethnic spectrum, and there's no solid evidence that either candidate would gain a decisive edge, he said.

Bainum and Hannemann are cautious when asked about Fasi's effect on the race, and say they respect his past achievements and his right to be involved. But Fasi doesn't hold back.

"I don't think either one of them is by any stretch of the imagination qualified, or has the experience and the background, the knowledge to be the mayor of the 11th-largest city government in the United States," he said.

He said he won't endorse one of them if he is squeezed out in the primary. But simply helping to force a runoff would be a tremendous boost to the trailing candidate if he would otherwise have been eliminated in the primary.

"What it does is give them another chance," Milner said. "The alternative is no chance at all. What it does is create an opportunity that something might happen to change things. And frankly, it's not likely to be Fasi making some kind of ringing endorsement. It's just that something could happen. And if you're the underdog, that's the best you could hope for: another chance."