When people don't have to worry about whether their paychecks are secure, they worry about being able to buy a home, traffic congestion and preserving open space and beaches.

But increasing housing means increasing development, creating a conflict of "lifestyles vs. livelihoods," said Laney, a professor of economics and finance at Hawai'i Pacific University and a consultant to luncheon sponsor First Hawaiian Bank.

It's a conflict with no ready solutions, he said.

Maui's economy is growing at a rapid pace, and the trend should continue for at least the next couple of years, experts say. The island's unemployment rate — 2.9 percent in July — is lower than the statewide level, and job growth — 2.3 percent through the first six months of 2004 — also is outpacing the state as a whole.

Maui's visitor industry is having a good year, although its 1.5 percent growth through July lags O'ahu, Kaua'i and the Big Island. This is because 2003 was a great year for Maui, making it hard to top, Laney said.

The "Magic Isle," as it has been dubbed by marketers, counts on the U.S. Mainland for 85 percent of its visitors, and this year, the West Coast market was down in the first six months. Without direct flights from Japan, the island has not benefited from a pickup in Japanese visitors to Hawai'i. At the same time, Canadian charter flights were dropped.

The island's reputation as an upscale travel destination has served it well, though, Laney said, so that achieving higher visitor numbers isn't as important as continuing to attract well-heeled, free-spending visitors.

He said evidence of confidence in the island's visitor industry can be seen in the $355 million sale of the Fairmont Kea Lani in Wailea to Host Marriott, the purchase of the Four Seasons Resort in Wailea by Dell's investment arm, and Maui Land & Pineapple Co.'s acquisition of the Kapalua Bay Hotel.

An increase in cruise-ship traffic has provided a boost statewide, and the time-share market on Maui is hot, Laney said. That's a good thing, he said, because time-share visitors "smooth out seasonal variations and are less skittish travelers in time of global worries.The Ka'anapali Ocean Resort, the Maui Ocean Club and the Maui Lu all plan to add time-share units.

Construction of time-share and residential and commercial projects continues as one of the strongest sectors of Maui's economy, according to Laney, thanks to low interest rates and pent-up demand. Large housing projects are planned for Central and West Maui, and Alexander & Baldwin can be expected to generate additional building on its Wailea and Kahului lands, he said.

"But there is some concern in the construction industry that projects now permitted will carry the industry only for the next year or two, and slowdowns in the permit process have been observed recently," he said.

Maui's overheated real-estate market remains the talk of the island. The median home price in the first half of the year was $534,000, almost double what it was 10 years ago. Median home prices in the first six months of the year rose 33 percent in Central Maui and 50 percent in Kihei, Laney said.

Although the number of home sales has been cooling, prices continue to rise.

Laney said the current boom cycle is more likely to level off than experience the sudden drop off the deep end that occurred when the real-estate bubble burst in the early 1990s, triggering a recession in Hawai'i.

High-technology interests, most associated with observatories atop Haleakala, are an important growth niche for Maui, according to Laney. The Maui Research & Technology Park in Kihei is full, with the list of tenants including such companies as defense contractors Boeing, Trex Enterprises and Textron Systems. A new 35,000-square-foot building is out for bid and could open by next year.

He said the research and technology park makes other contributions: Park visitors spent $10.2 million last year on hotel rooms alone.

Other bright spots include expansion of programs at Maui Community College, which is working with a developer to build housing for 400 students, and $38 million in improvements to Maui Memorial Medical Center, which will create more jobs. Just this week a nonprofit organization announced plans to build a $200 million hospital in Kihei.

Although plantation agriculture had been replaced by tourism as Maui's mainstay, Hawaiian Commercial & Sugar Co. and Maui Land & Pine remain players in the local economy. Laney said HC&S sugar production declined this year due to weather conditions, and despite lower sugar prices, the company should remain stable for the immediate future.

He said he is taking a wait-and-see approach to Maui Land & Pine CEO David Cole's ambitious plans to revamp the company's pineapple, hospitality and development units.