Leverage in a few state races
By Derrick DePledge
Advertiser Capitol Bureau
Saturday's primary results suggest there may only be a handful of races where Republicans have a realistic chance of making gains in the state House and Senate in the November elections, which could be important in deciding the balance of political power at the state Capitol.
Democrats, meanwhile, have identified a few opportunities to strengthen their hold on the state Legislature, where the party has veto-proof majorities in both the House and Senate.
The political parties are still digesting the primary results and will determine over the next few weeks which legislative races to target for the general election, when more voters are expected to turn out to settle the Honolulu mayor's race and help choose the president.
Gov. Linda Lingle, approaching the midpoint of her four-year term, has been thwarted by Dem-ocrats in the Legislature and has appealed to voters to elect more Republicans so she can advance her agenda.
Unless Republicans take the House or Senate outright in November, which many political analysts believe is unlikely, Lingle might have to adjust her approach and work more closely with Democrats on issues important to her.
"I don't think that's going to happen," Dan Boylan, a history professor at the University of Hawai'i-West O'ahu, said of a Republican takeover. "But I think they definitely have a chance to pick up some seats."
Brennon Morioka, the chairman of the Hawai'i GOP, said the governor will actively campaign for candidates in targeted races. "She has not been as successful as she could have been because of obstacles in the Legislature," he said. "She needs more friends there.
"I think this year is an extremely critical year."
Republicans believe they have a genuine chance to gain the three seats in the House necessary to crack the Democrats' ability to override Lingle's vetoes. Democrats enjoy a 36 to 15 majority in the House and 20 to 5 majority in the Senate.
Jim Hall, a Republican analyst, has marked at least five House races where Republicans could realistically gain and three others where they have outside shots, although a few Republican incumbents could also be in jeopardy.
Among the key races are state Rep. Cindy Evans, D-7th (N. Kona, S. Kohala), against mortgage broker J. William Sanborn; state Rep. Blake Oshiro, D-33rd (Halawa, 'Aiea, Pearlridge), against retired Navy officer Gerald Coffee; and state Rep. Michael Kahikina, D-44th (Nanakuli, Honokai Hale), against payroll clerk Karen Awana, who lost narrowly to Kahikina in 2002.
Other key races are state Rep. Romeo Mindo, D-43rd ('Ewa Beach, W. Loch), against House Republican researcher Kymberly Pine; state Rep. Tommy Waters, D-51st (Waimanalo, Lanikai), against bank manager and neighborhood board chairman Wilson Ho; and state Rep. Michael Maga-oay, D-46th (Kahuku, North Shore, Schofield Barracks), against government information specialist Carol Anne Phillips, who lost a tight campaign to Magaoay in 2002.
Republicans, Hall believes, could gain two seats in the Senate. The party is hopeful about Don Couch, the executive assistant to Maui mayor Alan Arakawa, against state Sen. Roz Baker, D-5th (W. Maui, S. Maui), after he lost a close race to Baker in 2002. Republicans are also optimistic that Jim Henshaw, a Senate aide, can challenge former state lawmaker and Office of Hawaiian Affairs trustee Clayton Hee, who defeated state Sen. Melodie Aduja, D-23rd (Kane'ohe, Kahuku), in the primary.
The race between state Sen. Gary Hooser, D-7th (Kaua'i, Ni'ihau), and former Kaua'i mayor Maryanne Kusaka could also be one to watch, observers say.
Democrats will look to block any Lingle momentum by increasing their power in the Legislature. Josh Wisch, the House caucus director for the party, said Democrats could gain two to four seats in the House.
"Governor Lingle has made it clear that she's coming after everyone who didn't fall into lock-step with her," Wisch said.
Wisch said it is important for Democrats to preserve a veto-proof majority, adding that education reform and "ice" prevention laws were approved last session over Lingle vetoes. But he said the election is more than a referendum on the governor. Voters will have the chance to validate the Democrats' leadership.
One potential Democratic gain is on Maui, where Kam Tanaka, a retired corrections officer and political newcomer, will face state Rep. Brian Blundell, R-10th (W. Maui), who was arrested in July for allegedly sexually assaulting an undercover Honolulu police officer.
Three other GOP House incumbents — state Rep. Corinne Ching, R-27th (Liliha, Pu'unui); state Rep. Guy Ontai, R-37th (Mililani, Waipi'o); and state Rep. Kika Bukoski, R-12th (Upcountry Maui) — are in districts where Democrats had strong vote totals in the primary.
Boylan cautioned that the Republican votes in those districts were likely the bottom of the party's base and, if 2002 results are an indication, could swell in the general election, when the landscape could change dramatically. President Bush and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry will likely bring thousands of additional voters to the polls and, while Hawai'i is traditionally a Democratic state in presidential elections, a strong showing by either candidate here could influence races down the ballot.
Reach Derrick DePledge at ddepledge@honoluluadvertiser.com or 525-8070.
