But it's a game of high-stakes chicken of the most dangerous kind. Despite its deep respect for Taiwan's extraordinary economic success, China steamily regards Taiwan as an outlaw province that needs to be brought to heel and reintegrated into larger ("Mother") China. And despite its ever-growing economic ties and increasing dependency on China, Taiwan warily regards the mainland as a potent political communicable disease capable of infecting the prosperous and democratic island with an epidemic of communist totalitarianism not unlike a socialist strain of SARS.

The continuing cross-strait contretemps is characterized by several disturbing factors.

One is that China's military buildup proceeds with grim determination, and it may be assumed that future invasion of the United States is not its primary or immediate purpose.

Another is that the Chinese government has finger-wagged at Taiwan so often and so publicly to accept subsidiary status as a mainland province, like Hong Kong and Macao, that ... where's the room to back down? One can only hope that President Hu Jintao will prove less abrasive on the issue than allegedly abrasive outgoing predecessor Jiang Zemin i but that's only a hope.

And, sure, perhaps the passage of time will cool China's ardor for heavy-handedness and awaken it to the value of persuasion and moderation, as was the marvelous lesson of the recent legislative election in Hong Kong. Happily, the surprising results in the former British colony, which increased pro-Beijing seats without eviscerating the pro-democratic party, led to the withdrawal of foolishly tougher security laws from further consideration by the ever-embattled but ever-under-appreciated Tung Chee-hwa, Hong Kong's nice-guy top leader.

A third concern is the role of the United States.

China will not strike Taiwan, it may be assumed (unless Beijing is nuts), unless it has some assurance, secret or otherwise, that the United States will look the other way. And, for its part, Taiwan would presumably cease acting as David to Goliath if all it had in reserve was a silly slingshot and not the security guarantee of the world's sole superpower.

If not, that's what in Vegas is called betting the farm — or, in this case, wagering the whole future of the island on the gamble that America's historic anti-communism will override the growing probability that China is destined to become the second superpower with which the U.S., like everyone else, will have to make an accommodation.

Look at it this way: If Chen Shui-bian were suddenly to be in the shoes of George W. Bush — or John Kerry — what would he do in the event that China invaded Taiwan, whatever the motive?

You know what? He just might duck. Chicken, you see, is such a dangerous game: Sometimes the edgiest of the edgy go right off the cliff.