Carrier group could be a fistful of dollars

By Andrew Gomes
Advertiser Staff Writer

One of the biggest potential boosts to Hawai'i's economy in the next several years could come from basing an aircraft carrier strike group in the state.

Moving a carrier group to Hawai'i was contemplated and rejected in the late 1990s, after the Navy concluded the state had inadequate infrastructure.

But a redefined globe of potential threats now bolsters the case for a carrier base in the state, which is five sailing days closer than the West Coast to such possible trouble spots as the Korean Peninsula.

The nation's 12 carriers are divided evenly between Atlantic and Pacific fleets, with six based at East Coast ports, five on the West Coast and one in Japan. Acquiring a carrier from the Mainland likely would involve a political dogfight because of the economic impact associated with homeporting one of the "floating cities."

The move, however, has the staunch backing of Hawai'i Sen. Dan Inouye, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee.

The scope of the ongoing Navy study is limited to reassessing the condition, availability and improvement costs of Hawai'i infrastructure related to accommodating a carrier strike group, which includes a host of other fighting and support ships plus 70 to 80 aircraft.

Among the major infrastructure needs would be upgrades to port facilities, airfields and housing.

The Navy analysis in 1999 pegged the cost at $678 million without the air wing. Inouye has recently estimated the carrier group's infrastructure cost to be at least $1 billion over 10 years.

The construction alone would create a huge economic boost to the state. Besides that, maintenance contracts, personnel spending and other expenditures would flow into Hawai'i's economy.

The Chamber of Commerce of Hawai'i, in 1998, estimated the economic contribution of a carrier base at $375 million a year, and 4,200 jobs.

In San Diego, home port of three carriers, the Regional Chamber of Commerce last year figured each carrier has an annual $270 million economic benefit, including $111 million in payroll spent locally and $40 million in maintenance contracts.

The economic impact for Hawai'i may be less than for San Diego because the carrier's time spent in the state could be less.

The Navy's 1999 study said Hawai'i had limited air-to-air and air-to-surface training access, so a carrier would need to make eight six-day trips to Southern California for exercises.

Back then, carriers typically deployed for six months and returned to base for 12 months of maintenance and training. Today, carrier deployment cycles are more flexible to make readiness less predictable and to enable quicker and more frequent deployments.

"We have to be ready to deploy when the president needs a carrier," said Jon Yoshishige, spokesman for the Navy's Pearl Harbor-based Pacific Fleet.

Every day a carrier group is in port brings more spending. Last October when the San Diego-based USS Nimitz carrier strike group stopped in Honolulu following an eight-month deployment in the Persian Gulf, 6,500 personnel and 1,300 family members pumped an estimated $5 million into the local economy.

Paul Kosasa, president and chief executive of convenience store chain ABC Stores, likened the five-day visit to a convention being in town.

A carrier strike group in Hawai'i would conceivably operate much like one based in Yokosuka, Japan, where the Navy maintains its only permanent "forward-deployed" carrier, the USS Kitty Hawk.

As such, a carrier group in Hawai'i would need a land base for the carrier's air wing, which includes a variety of planes and helicopters. Air wings for Mainland-based carriers are dispersed at centralized land bases grouped by aircraft type.

Last month, Inouye said the Navy was assessing the possibility of basing an air wing at four Hawai'i locations — Barking Sands on Kaua'i, and Kalaeloa, the Kane'ohe Marine Corps base and Wheeler Army Airfield on O'ahu.

Accompanying the carrier also would be a ship support group that varies in size and makeup. A typical group might include a guided-missile cruiser, two guided-missile destroyers, an attack submarine and a supply ship.

The additions would roughly increase the number of surface ships stationed at Pearl Harbor by 50 percent. There are 12 surface ships at Pearl, down from 23 in 1987. The number of submarines homeported in Hawai'i has remained more constant at 17, compared with 19 in 1985.

On the crew side, a carrier group has about 3,200 sailors and 2,300 air wing personnel. Nearly 15,000 family members also would be likely to reside in Hawai'i.

The influx would add to the demand at some overpopulated Hawai'i schools, a concern recently raised by the state in relation to the implementation of the Army's Stryker brigade that would add 800 soldiers and nearly as many children.

The state estimated the Stryker-related cost to schools at an initial $16 million plus $3.5 million a year. The brigade's estimated benefit to the economy via construction alone is $693 million.

In the Navy's 1999 carrier study, officials concluded that the state and city would receive $32 million more in revenue than expenses, factoring the impact on schools of 600 children of carrier personnel.

Some 5,500 carrier group personnel would represent about a 1 percent to 2 percent increase to the roughly 40,000 military personnel stationed in Hawai'i last year. The addition is roughly half the number of military personnel who have left Hawai'i since 1990.

The Navy declined to estimate when a decision could be made on basing a carrier group here. If approved, Inouye has estimated that a move would take at least five years.

Reach Andrew Gomes at agomes@honoluluadvertiser.com or 525-8065.