Posted on: Sunday, September 26, 2004
COMMENTARY
Afghanistan — Are we moving toward democracy or chaos?
By Peter Bergen
Based on what Americans have been seeing in the news media about Afghanistan lately, there may not be many who believed President Bush when he told the United Nations that the "Afghan people are on the path to democracy and freedom." But then again, not many Americans know what Afghanistan was like before the American-led invasion. Let me offer some perspective.
Richard Ambo • The Honolulu Advertiser The scene was very different this time around. The Kandahar airport, where I had once seen Taliban soldiers showing off their anti-aircraft missiles, is now a vast American base with thousands of soldiers, as well as a 24-hour coffee shop, a North Face clothing store, a day spa and a PX the size of a Wal-Mart. Next door, what was once a base for Osama bin Laden is now an American shooting range. In downtown Kandahar, the gaudy compound of the Taliban leader, Mullah Muhammad Omar, now houses U.S. Special Forces units.
As I toured other parts of the country, the image that I was prepared for — that of a nation wracked by competing warlords and in danger of degenerating into a Colombia-style narcostate — never materialized.
Undeniably, the drug trade is a serious concern (it now compromises about a third of the country's gross domestic product) and the slow pace of disarming the warlords is worrisome.
Richard Ambo • The Honolulu Advertiser It's also promising that some 3 million refugees have returned to Afghanistan since the fall of the Taliban. Kabul, the capital, is now one of the fastest-growing cities in the world, with spectacular traffic jams and booming construction sites. And urban centers around the country are experiencing similar growth.
While two out of three Afghans cited security as their most pressing concern in a poll taken this summer by the International Republican Institute, four out of five respondents also said things are better than they were two years ago. Despite dire predictions from many Westerners, the presidential election, scheduled for Oct. 9, now looks promising.
Ten million Afghans have registered to vote, far more than were anticipated, and almost half of those who have signed up are women.
Indeed, one of the 18 candidates for president is a woman. Even in Kandahar, more then 60 percent of the population has registered to vote, while 45 percent have registered in Uruzgan Province, the birthplace of Mullah Omar. With these kinds of numbers registering, it seems possible that turnout will be higher than the one-third of eligible voters who have participated in recent American presidential elections.
Richard Ambo • The Honolulu Advertiser This summer he dropped his running mate, Mohammad Fahim, a power-hungry general who had pompously awarded himself the title of field marshal after the fall of the Taliban. And this month Karzai forced Ismail Khan, the governor of the western province of Herat, to resign. These moves not only neutralized two powerful rivals, men who could field their own private armies, but also increased the stability of the central government.
What we are seeing in Afghanistan is far from perfect, but it's better than so-so. Disputes that would once have been settled with the barrel of a gun are now increasingly being dealt with politically.
The remnants of the Taliban are doing what they can to disrupt the coming election, but their attacks, aimed at election officials, American forces and international aid workers, are sporadic and strategically ineffective.
If the elections are a success, it will send a powerful signal to neighboring countries such as Pakistan, Iran, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, none of which can claim to be representative democracies. If so, the democratic domino effect, which was one of the Bush administration's arguments for the Iraq war, may be more realistic in Central Asia than it has proved to be in the Middle East.
This summer I visited Kandahar, the former Taliban stronghold in southern Afghanistan, for the first time since the winter of 1999. Five years ago, the Taliban and its al-Qaida allies were at the height of their power. They had turned Afghanistan into a terrorist state, with more than a dozen training camps churning out thousands of jihadist graduates every year.
Staff Sgt. David P. Dougherty of Johnson City, Tenn., and the 2nd Battalion, 27th Infantry Regiment, hands out soccer balls in Sreh Kowt in the Afghanistan province of Paktika. His unit was in the area searching for insurgents and handing out supplies.
Over the past three years, however, most of the important militia leaders, like Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum of the Uzbek community in the country's north, have shed their battle fatigues for the business attire of the politicians they hope to become.
Residents of Sreh Kowt keep a wary eye on soldiers from Hawai'i's 2nd Battalion, 27th Infantry Regiment as they search the homes there. Perspectives differ over the U.S. progress made in Afghanistan.
According to a poll taken in July by the Asia Foundation, President Hamid Karzai is drawing substantial support around the country. He has emerged not only as a popular leader, but also as a shrewd player of the kind of hardball politics that would have warmed the heart of Lyndon Johnson.
Sgt. 1st Class Timothy Johnson of the 2nd Battalion, 27th Infantry Regiment, gives water to an Afghan girl in the village of Sreh Kowt. A presidential election is scheduled for Oct. 9.
