Rush-hour drive time could double by 2030

By Mike Leidemann
Advertiser Transportation Writer

If you think traffic is bad now, come back in 25 years.

And in the most congested areas — the Leeward Coast, Kapolei and 'Ewa plain areas — people who already spend an hour or more commuting are likely to see their time in the car double, meaning some commuters could be spending more than four hours a day on the road.

Across the island, the peak-hour commuting time of an average commuter, including those in the primary urban center of Honolulu, is likely to grow by more than 30 percent, according to preliminary results of a study conducted for the O'ahu Metropolitan Planning Organization.

"Basically, the figures show that if we do nothing more than we already are doing, it's going to get worse and then it's going to get much worse," said Gordon Lum, OMPO's executive director.

Nestor Garcia, head of OMPO's Policy Committee and chairman of the City Council's Committee on Planning and Transportation, wasn't surprised by the numbers.

"Given everything that's happening, we're headed for the perfect storm," Garcia said, citing a record number of new car sales, a shortage of city buses, continued economic growth and even the possible basing of an aircraft carrier group on O'ahu as contributing factors.

"You can see the dark clouds on the horizon," he said.

The projections are based on expected population, economic and transit growth in areas around the island and assume that only "baseline" fixes to O'ahu's transportation network of roads and buses are made between now and 2030.

Those basic improvements include a number of high-profile projects already being built or planned, such as the widening of Fort Weaver Road and the H-1 Freeway and completion of the North-South Road.

Even with those improvements in place, the figures are staggering:

• The island's population is expected to grow 27 percent to 1.1 million people while employment rises 26 percent to 632,900 jobs.

• Those figures mean more people will be driving to work, school and shopping more often, increasing the number of automobile trips made on O'ahu to nearly 3 million a day.

• In all, O'ahu drivers will log an expected 14.9 million miles on the road every day, a 32 percent increase over 2000 levels.

All that driving is expected to result in a sharp increase in the number of roads that experience what OMPO calls significant congestion during the morning peak-hours between 6 and 8 a.m.

Those areas include all the major streets in the primary urban core of Honolulu from Waikiki to Kalihi as well as most major highways from Hawai'i Kai to Kailua to Wai'anae, according to the study.

"Holy smoke. That's unbelievable. They need to build a new freeway or something," said Rae Ann Hyatt of Kapolei after looking at preliminary maps that suggest her current one-hour commute could more than double by 2030.

A committed car commuter, Hyatt said "if push comes to shove," she might consider switching to a bus or a new rail line.

Mililani resident Bob Hobday said the state needs better planning to cope with the coming traffic crisis.

"I don't think there's any more land for new highways, so we've got to think differently," Hobday said. "We need to move jobs or put limits on growth. Otherwise people are going to be so frustrated that they'll simply stop going to work."

The projections in the preliminary report are part of a five-year update on a previous study that predicted what traffic would be like in 2025.

"The last time around we didn't really emphasize travel time," Lum said. "This time we wanted to use travel time as a measure that most people can relate to. When you see where all the congestion is going to be, it hits home in real terms."

The figures released last week are designed to present a worst-case scenario of traffic, showing what would happen if no further road or transit improvements are made.

To help offset the projected growth in congestion, OMPO officials are studying more than 400 suggested road projects and other transit proposals.

Taken from previous studies, state and city official plans and suggestions from the general public, the list is a cornucopia of common-sense and off-beat ideas to beat the ever-growing jam.

Ferries, buses, carpools, rail, bicycles, contraflow lanes, mopeds and other, more fanciful ideas, such as undersea tunnels and automated highways for hands-free driving, are all part of the mix.

By far, though, most of the suggested projects call for new, bigger or improved highways and streets that connect different areas of O'ahu.

By July, consultants hope to have the projects reduced to a more manageable and financially feasible list of about 200 ideas, then hold public hearings on the plan.

OMPO is a federally mandated organization charged with coordinating traffic planning on O'ahu.

Ultimately, OMPO Policy Committee members will weigh the suggestions against expected revenues and come up with a final proposal that will guide development of O'ahu's transit projects for the next 25 years.

City and state officials still will be responsible for implementing the traffic improvement projects, but specific proposals won't be eligible for federal money unless they are in general agreement with the larger plan, called Planning in Motion, that OMPO is developing.

Reach Mike Leidemann at 525-5460 or mleidemann@honoluluadvertiser.com.

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