Posted on: Thursday, April 21, 2005

As Hawai'i grays rapidly, look for the silver lining

By Christie Wilson
Advertiser Neighbor Island Editor

The U.S. Census Bureau is predicting that Hawai'i's population of residents aged 65 and older will double by 2030, creating additional challenges for families and the state's healthcare, housing and transportation systems.

But the graying of Hawai'i also will see a healthier, more educated and affluent group of senior citizens contributing more to the community than past generations, advocates said. And new living options and advances in medical technology mean that circumstances likely will be much different for the elderly in the coming decades than today.

Cullen Hayashida, who has long been involved in aging issues, said society needs to get over the idea that the elderly are a burden. "We have to change the whole image of the elderly. We can't simply look at this group as second-class but as a resource with a huge amount to contribute," he said.

The Census Bureau data released today show that those 65 and older made up a little more than 13 percent of the state's population in 2000, with 160,601 people in that age category.

The agency predicts that by 2030, that group will more than double to 326,957, or 22 percent of the entire population.

Hawai'i would rank 13th in the nation for percentage of elderly population, moving up from its 2000 ranking of 16th.

The number of Hawai'i residents younger than 18 is predicted to increase 10 percent by 2030, but children would still make up approximately one-quarter of the population, as they did in 2000. And the age categories spanning 30 to 54 would see an actual drop in numbers.

Overall, the Census Bureau predicts that the state's population will grow 21 percent over the 30-year period, to 1.47 million. Hawai'i ranks 22nd in terms of projected percentage change in population, and 41st in total population — only one spot above its 2000 position.

State economist Pearl Imada Iboshi of the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism contends the Census Bureau underestimated Hawai'i's growth. State officials predict the population will expand to 1.63 million by 2030.

Iboshi said the bureau based its calculations on population trends from 1995 to 2000, when a weak economy drove more Hawai'i residents out of the state than the number who moved here — the only five-year period since statehood that the Islands experienced a net out-migration. In addition, the federal counters didn't give enough weight to Hawai'i's high rate of foreign immigration, she said.

Iboshi also questioned census numbers having to do with growth in the elderly population. She said the Census Bureau's projections don't distinguish between civilians and Hawai'i's military population of 55,000, most of whom will be reassigned out of state before reaching the upper age brackets.

Still, there's no denying that Hawai'i — like the rest of the country — will be dealing with a growing population of senior citizens as the baby boomers move into their golden years. And with families and human service agencies already overwhelmed with unmet needs for housing, long-term care and other services for the elderly, and uncertainty over the Social Security system, the outlook may seem bleak.

But Iboshi and others say it's difficult to predict what's in store for the year 2030.

"People will be working longer, but I think they are so much healthier now, even at older ages, that it's going to help mitigate some of the potential impacts," Iboshi said.

"The private sector tends to be good at filling in whatever needs arise and we've already seen an increase in the number of healthcare and living options as people get older," she said. And with the well-publicized concerns about the long-term viability of Social Security, many people are making adjustments now to improve their financial security.

Jeanette Nekota of Mililani isn't so optimistic. The 51-year old social worker struggled to care for her mother in her final years, and doesn't see life getting any easier for her generation.

"It's going to be horrible," she said. "I keep telling people that." Companies can no longer be counted on to take care of retired employees, she said, and insurance cutbacks threaten medical care.

She recommends that people in their 40s and 50s make it a point to get along with their children and their children's spouses because they may have to count on them more than they would like. "It's a sad story but it is reality," she said. "I'm not going to sugarcoat it."

Hayashida, who co-hosts the "Kupuna Connection" program on 'Olelo public access television, said the labor market will need to adjust for greater demand for para-professionals such as home-care workers, who are in short supply today. Also needed will be daycare services and respite programs for families caring for older relatives.

"We will have to do a whole bunch more in terms of supporting families" and monitoring elder abuse and neglect, he said.

Pat Sasaki, head of the state Executive Office on Aging, said it's fairly clear the state will need more long-term beds, but "on the plus side is that this is a demographic with better-schooled, more astute consumers who are willing to speak up" and advocate for their needs.

Sasaki said new living options that are just now being explored may help aging residents stay in their homes longer and avoid hospitalization or long-term care.

Hayashida said medical technology is being developed that will keep more of the elderly out of hospitals and nursing homes and reduce the need for clinic visits by allowing physicians to monitor patients at home.

He also believes that healthier and wealthier senior citizens in future generations will want to stay active and engage in community programs.

Staff writer Karen Blakeman contributed to this report. Reach Christie Wilson at cwilson@honoluluadvertiser.com or (808) 244-4880.