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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Monday, August 1, 2005

Job growth spurs economy

By William Sluis
Chicago Tribune

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With the housing industry setting record after record, consumer spending perking along and manufacturing in a revival, economists see little on the horizon to point to any slowdown.

About the only bleak indicator has been hiring, as job formation continues to lag the economy's otherwise impressive 3.4 percent growth rate. Some of those seeking work report it still is far from easy to get back on a payroll.

That brings us to Friday's July employment report. Economist Brian Wesbury expects it to show that the economy added 210,000 positions last month, up from 146,000 in June. He looks for joblessness to remain flat at 5 percent.

About 10,000 jobs were added in manufacturing during June, he said, "after four months in a row of declines, which were caused by a modest inventory correction."

Wesbury, of Claymore Advisors in Lisle, Ill., said the government is having a tough time keeping track of new hires "because there are so many college students who can do computer work from a dorm room, and so many small builders who build houses with a handful of workers."

His bottom line, though, is that the job market continues to strengthen. That could create concerns about wage inflation in months to come.

In view of such price pressures, policy-makers of the Federal Reserve have been consistent in offering a view that interest rates are too low, despite nine moves to tighten credit in the last 13 months.

Little more than a week remains before they meet once more, with expectations they will boost their short-term rate barometer another notch from its current level of 3.25 percent.

Chicago banker Kenneth Skopec of MB Financial Bank says another rate hike is a foregone conclusion, setting the rate target at 3.5 percent.

"As long as solid economic growth continues, the Fed is on cruise control," he said. "Members have no choice but to continue raising rates. In fact, they could place policy on automatic pilot and skip their meetings for the rest of this year."

As for Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, Skopec says he "is counting the days until he can go fishing." Greenspan is slated to retire early next year.

Watch for today's report on July car and light truck sales to show buying fervor is at a four-year high. But gloomy analysts say the numbers may be a last hurrah, as Detroit ends its promotions that grant employee discounts to everyone.

In the meantime, last month's sales are expected to be the highest since October 2001, when U.S. automakers began offering zero percent financing following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. anticipate sales numbers 15 to 18 percent ahead of the month a year earlier.

The stock market has again edged near a four-year high.

In short order, Wall Street will encounter the dog days, followed by anticipation of autumn. After Labor Day, investors will begin wondering whether the usual jitters might set in during September and October.