Those are the findings of a state-financed plan presented this week by the Hawai'i Community Development Authority, which updated a nearly 10-year-old redevelopment plan for the former 3,700-acre military base in West O'ahu.

Previous state efforts to develop the largely abandoned property have stalled since the Navy closed the base in 1999.

The study cost $625,000 and was conducted by international planning firm Belt Collins and two Mainland companies experienced with military base reuse projects. It concluded that housing is critical to attract private investment and help pay for colossal infrastructure upgrades to the old base now mostly owned by the state.

A previous master plan, created in the mid-1990s as part of the base closure process, considered almost no housing at Kalaeloa because residential growth was deemed more suitable in the 'Ewa region where there was ample land. Kalaeloa also raised noise and safety concerns because of its operating airport and proximity to Campbell Industrial Park.

An estimated $3.2 billion is needed to realize the new master plan, including $550 million to improve roads, water utilities, electrical systems and other infrastructure.

The state envisions private investors, like home and office developers, funding $2.9 billion of the work in return for land or development rights. Federal funding is estimated at $15 million. The roughly $230 million balance would be left to the local public sector and could come from tax revenue, assessments or bond financing paid by state and private landowners at Kalaeloa, or tax-increment financing.

RAISING ISSUES

Some West O'ahu residents who attended a Wednesday evening meeting at Kapolei Middle School on the plan — still in draft form — raised concerns about the development's impact on traffic, schools and water.

"I really don't see how building more houses is going to solve the problem," said Glenn Oamilda, an 'Ewa Beach resident who works in Honolulu. "I have to fight the traffic every day."

Oamilda said it's a good idea to create a Kalaeloa community where people can live, work and play, but he fears that the growth will compound traffic chaos already plaguing 'Ewa Beach and Kapolei. "There hasn't been sufficient planning for the whole 'Ewa region," he said.

Lee William Sichter, a principal planner with Belt Collins, said planners tried to balance residential and commercial development potential for the area.

"We struggled a great deal with the issue," he said. "The fact is that if we were to not do some kind of residential, (the public financing) we identified as $230 million would increase tenfold. To be able to generate the revenue necessary to help fund the infrastructure, the biggest demand and best market is residential."

COMPARABLE PROJECTS

Residential development has played a key role in many other military base reuse projects, such as the Orlando Naval Training Center, which closed in the late 1990s and expects to have the last of 3,600 homes, offices, shopping outlets, schools and parks completed next year.

The Kalaeloa plan suggests some areas where housing is suitable, including property conveyed to the Department of Hawaiian Home Lands and land the Navy plans to sell around its golf course and near existing housing on the former base.

Daniel Dinell, executive director of the development agency, said much Kalaeloa land previously conveyed for parks or open space cannot be developed for commercial use, but several hundred acres are available for homes.

The Kalaeloa master plan proposes some major traffic-related ideas that planners said will help alleviate congestion, such as realigning the route of the planned North-South Road so that it runs from the H-1 Freeway into Kalaeloa before connecting with Ocean Pointe in 'Ewa.

As designed, the six-lane North-South Road will run from H-1 to Kapolei Parkway. Construction started on the $120 million road earlier this year at H-1 and isn't expected to be completed until 2008.

Another road realignment proposed in the Kalaeloa plan is making Saratoga Road into the area's new traffic backbone instead of Roosevelt Avenue by extending Saratoga to connect with Geiger Road leading into 'Ewa Beach.

Roosevelt is bordered on one side by an energy corridor that prevents development on the mauka side of the road, limiting surrounding redevelopment unlike Saratoga.

A mass transit loop and depot also are envisioned at Kalaeloa, according to the plan.

VIABLE PLAN

An initial phase of work would require $86 million to $96 million in public assistance over seven to eight years starting in 2007, according to the plan.

Sichter of Belt Collins said the plan is viable regardless of whether the Navy decides to base an air wing for a Pearl Harbor-ported aircraft carrier at Kalaeloa on Navy land.

What remains a bigger challenge, according to Sichter, is working with the Navy, the Department of Hawaiian Home Lands and the city — three major Kalaeloa landowners — to coordinate development.

The Navy has yet to complete expected land transfers of roughly 1,600 acres, or about 40 percent, of the former base, which also complicates planning.

The state development agency expects to revise its plan using public comments received through the end of the month, and produce a final draft that can be adopted by Nov. 2.

To contact the Hawai'i Community Development Authority call 587-2870.