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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, August 14, 2005

Terrorists win when you cancel

By Irene Croft Jr.

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After recent bombing attacks in Britain, Egypt and Turkey, travelers who have planned trips abroad within the next six months may be questioning the wisdom of continuing with their plans. But cancel your journey and the terrorists achieve their goals: to disrupt national economies and to fracture the normalcy and sense of security inherent in the American way of life.

Any terrorist incident or political disturbance, or even the vaguest threat of one, appears to be sufficient cause for many of our citizens to chuck their travel plans out the window. In the wake of a galvanizing terror incident, some of our countrymen will batten hatches and hunker down until they perceive some internal emotional guarantee that their travels will present zero risk. And that is just not going to happen in these parlous times of violent extremists.

Consider the actual numbers: You have a 1-in-88,000 chance of dying in a terrorist attack on land and a 1-in-55 million chance of dying in a terrorist-caused plane disaster. Contrast these odds with the chances of expiring on your own turf from more common occurrences: homicide, 1 in 182; drowning, 1 in 1,126; and excessive heat, 1 in 9,396.

Terrorism — attacks against civilians by non-state organizations — reached its peak in 1988 and has been in decline since then. This conclusion from a recent study by professor Justin Lewis of the University of Cardiff, Wales, factors in the 3,023 deaths of Sept. 11 but not the ongoing insurgent activity in Iraq. In fact, the study indicated that the year 2001 had a lower terrorist death toll than 1998 and lower than almost any year in the 1980s.

Lewis concludes that even if another attack on the massive scale of Sept. 11 should occur in the near future, we would still be safer from terrorism than we have been for much of the past two decades. Yet, the American traveler's fears have spiked.

Of course, you must be prudent to avoid visiting areas in active conflict or in the wake of a natural disaster or following a report of virulent epidemic. However, it is irrational, despite ongoing or sporadic violence, to avoid visiting entire countries, or areas of countries, where travelers, and Americans specifically, have not been targeted for hostile attentions.

Offering practical guidance, the Office of American Services and Crisis Management within the U.S. State Department administers the Consular Information Program, which informs the public of conditions abroad that may affect their safety and security. Consular Information Sheets, Public Announcements, and Travel Warnings are vital components of this program. This office, reachable by phone at (202) 647-3444 or at http: //travel.state.gov, is committed to providing a wealth of intelligence, sufficient for a traveler to evaluate his own level of comfort or discomfort in visiting a specific destination. Official "warnings" will appear only in extreme circumstances when the department "feels that Americans should avoid a certain destination entirely."

Contact a travel insurance company regarding coverage in the event of future incidents or threats and your travel providers for their security assessments, refund or credit policies, and backup strategies/alternative itineraries.

Evaluate the true risk — real and emotional — of your planned travels before initiating a cancellation that, cumulatively, could contribute to undermining the financial stability of the international economy.

The travel industry in particular will suffer, worldwide, from airports and air carriers, hotels and cruise lines to rental car companies, tour operators and retail merchants. Don't let the terrorists win.

Irene Croft Jr. of Kailua, Kona, is a travel writer and 40-year veteran globetrotter. Her column is published every other week.