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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, December 25, 2005

Energy was big sector-investing story for '05

By MEG RICHARDS
Associated Press

In some ways, the past year could be seen as Part II of 2004 for mutual fund investors, with the continued outperformance of dominant sectors like natural resources and real estate. But subtler themes also emerged in 2005, including a long-awaited shift toward growth stocks, which have finally started to outperform value issues.

With domestic equities posting less than stellar gains — the Standard & Poor's 500 has advanced barely 4 percent for the year — sector investing became the new favorite tool of many individuals. Funds invested in emerging markets enjoyed a particularly awesome 2005, at least in part because of the rally in oil, gas and other natural resources, which are major exports of many developing nations, noted Russ Kinnel, director of funds research at Morningstar Inc. Diversified emerging markets had surged 28 percent through November; Latin America funds were up 53 percent.

Energy was the story of the year, with natural resource funds up 44 percent. Indeed, energy was an important factor across the spectrum, Kinnel said, even at the individual fund level.

"Look in a category, any category, and if you saw a fund doing really well, or really poorly, nine times out of 10 the explanation, the answer, was energy," Kinnel said. "This year it was all about energy."

Real estate funds continued to enjoy decent returns, as well, averaging 12 percent, though the sector's obituary has been written "at least once a month for the last year," said Don Cassidy, senior research analyst with fund tracker Lipper Inc.

After six years of gains, market watchers say the real estate rally is showing signs of wear. Housing stocks suffered as rising interest rates took their toll, and wary experts see bearish signals everywhere — even on television, where housing speculation has become entertainment on shows such as TLC's "Property Ladder" and Discovery Home Channel's "Flip That House."

"If ever there was a sign the bubble was about the burst, it's got to be that!" Kinnel said. "I guess, both real estate and natural resources feel a little scary at this point, maybe real estate a little more so."

If energy was the big sector story, the story of the year in terms of money flows was international funds, said Carl Wittnebert, director of fund flow research for TrimTabs Investment Research.

TrimTabs' preliminary numbers for the first 11 months of the year showed $93 billion flowed into global and international stock funds, while just $29 billion had gone to domestic equities. That's a sizable difference, especially when you consider that the total amount invested in world equity funds — estimated at $829 billion at the end of October — makes up less than a quarter of the $4.662 trillion invested in all stock funds.

In general, however, it was a slightly disappointing year for fund flows, Wittnebert said, with early figures showing total equity inflows at $122 billion through November, compared to $178 billion for all of 2004. Flows into bond funds improved despite a rocky market, up $31 billion compared to a small outflow in 2004.