Posted on: Monday, February 14, 2005

EDITORIAL
Is U.S. powerless over real WMD?

"The problem here is that there will always be some uncertainty about how quickly he can acquire nuclear weapons. But we don't want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud."

That discredited rhetoric about Saddam Hussein, from then-national security adviser Condoleezza Rice, now applies to Iran and North Korea. Both are far closer to joining the nuclear club than Iraq was when the United States invaded it.

Iran says (to White House howls of disbelief) that it is not developing nuclear weapons. North Korea says it already has nuclear weapons.

Washington says it may seek U.N. sanctions against Iran, while the military option is "not on the agenda" but "not off the table." Sound familiar?

It will to Tehran, which sees itself literally surrounded by U.S. bases. As a member of the "axis of evil," Iran has a choice. It can be like Iraq, which was invaded because it was pursuing weapons of mass destruction, but vulnerable because it didn't yet have them. Or it can be like North Korea, which may or may not have viable nuclear weapons — just enough, evidently, to exempt it from attack.

Learning from North Korea, Iran sees a powerful reason — self-preservation — to develop nuclear weapons as quickly as possible, and little incentive not to.

A North Korea or an Iran capable of nuclear attack on its neighbors, or of selling nuclear materials to rogue countries or terrorists, is unacceptable.

The model for the military option is the 1981 Israeli destruction by air attack of Iraq's nuclear project. But U.S. intelligence isn't sure where Iran or North Korea conduct their nuclear handiwork, except that it's deep underground.

A botched pre-emptive raid would invite nuclear retaliation against Israel by Iran, or against Japan or South Korea by North Korea. No one's sure whether the deterrent actually exists (in North Korea's case) or how soon it may exist (in Iran's case).

But with the military option risky at best, diplomacy is the safer bet.

That's why Bush's efforts to isolate Tehran and Pyongyang seem counterproductive.

The North Koreans have said repeatedly that they will verifiably dismantle their nuclear weapons program if the United States drops its belligerent attitude, establishes diplomatic relations and resumes the aid it earlier promised.

An attractive deal with Pyongyang likely would have Iran following the North Korea model — toward peace.