Beirut: Don't jump to hasty conclusion

The Bush administration is not alone in suspecting the bloody hand of Syria behind the assassination of Lebanon's former prime minister, Rafik Hariri.

Mourners outside his home seemed to agree as they chanted "Syria out." Hariri may have been helping the anti-Syrian opposition and perhaps preparing to formally join it.

Yet he would not have served as prime minister off and on over the past 14 years without Syria's concurrence. Syria's president denied involvement and condemned the killing as an "odious crime."

Sixteen others died and scores were injured in the massive blast Monday in Beirut, raising fears that the civil war, from 1975 to 1990, might rekindle.

The Bush administration says it's holding Syria responsible for the bombing, at least indirectly, because of its long domination of Lebanon. The recall of the U.S. ambassador to Damascus yesterday, the administration said, was meant to reflect "profound outrage" over the assassination.

But there remains considerable doubt as to why Hariri was killed. Possibilities include an al-Qaida objection to his dealings in Saudi Arabia, where he held dual citizenship, or even a criminal "hit" — he didn't become a self-made billionaire without making enemies.

U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559, sponsored by France and the United States and passed in September 2004, calls for a withdrawal of Syria's 15,000 troops from Lebanon. "There's a process, 1559, which is under way," said a French Foreign Ministry spokesman yesterday. "That's one thing.

"The appalling tragedy which claimed the life of Mr. Hariri is something else altogether. Let's not deal with this by conflating different things."

Still, the resolution, which Hariri privately favored, threatens to end Syria's profitable hegemony over Lebanon. "If the Syrians are forced out," writes Michael Young in Slate, "they fear not only losing regional relevance and the stick of Hezbollah to wield against Israel, but also the financial and other benefits they have enjoyed during their 28-year presence."

The shock of such a loss, Young adds, would threaten the regime of Bashar Assad, Syria's president.

That's a powerful motive. Nevertheless, the Bush administration has found many reasons to be unfriendly to Syria over the years. It must not be seen to be using this tragedy as a pretext for actions long contemplated.