Graduation rate in dispute
By Johnny Brannon
Advertiser Education Writer
Hawai'i school officials have disputed an independent research organization's findings that public high school graduation rates here are among the lowest in the nation.
A new national study by the education branch of the Manhattan Institute found that Hawai'i's graduation rate has steadily declined since 1991, and ranked 42nd in the nation in 2002. Just 63 percent of public school students graduate here, the study found.
The Hawai'i Department of Education put the graduation rate much higher, at 78.9 percent for 2002.
"We're very confident in that figure," said Robert McClelland, director of the DOE's planning and evaluation office.
Marcus Winters, one of the independent study's authors, said the group based its findings on enrollment data reported to the federal government, and factored in population changes to determine the number of students who should have graduated.
"I don't want to give the impression that this is the absolute perfect graduation rate — I don't think that's possible to get," he said. "But we have to have reasonable estimates for these things, and I think we produce a pretty reasonable estimate. We have a good idea of how many students went in, and we have a good idea of how many students left with a diploma. While our rate's probably not perfect, it's hard for it to be very far off."
McClelland said the state tracks individual students, and can more accurately determine whether they graduate.
"I believe our measurement is more accurate," he said.
DOE spokesman Greg Knudsen said the state's graduation figures could actually be lower than the true rate because students from military families can't always be tracked when they move outside the state.
"If someone transfers out of a school, and we don't get confirmation that they've re-enrolled elsewhere, then we have no choice but to just list them as dropouts," he said. "We have a range of the known and unknown, but it doesn't go that far."
It's not the first time graduation rates have been disputed here. A national study released last year by The Urban Institute pegged Hawai'i's 2001 graduation rate at 66 percent, or 34th in the nation. The Manhattan Institute put Hawai'i's rate at 70 percent for the same year, and ranked it 31st nationwide.
Winters said it's hard for independent groups to verify graduation rates, because states keep information about individual students private. Research has shown that government figures aren't always reliable, however, he said.
"States have come up with some pretty creative ways to inflate their graduation rates," he said.
Even if the new study's rates aren't perfect, the ranking of Hawai'i as 42nd in the nation for 2002 should be accurate because the Manhattan Institute used the same methodology nationwide, Winters said.
The study found that the national high school graduation rate was 71 percent in 2002. New Jersey had the highest rate among the states, at 89 percent. South Carolina had the lowest, at 53 percent.
Reach Johnny Brannon at jbrannon@honoluluadvertiser.com or 525-8084.
