Posted on: Tuesday, February 22, 2005

Fliers may face summer of delays

By James Pilcher
Cincinnati Enquirer

For air travelers, could 2005 bring a repeat of 2000's so-called "summer of hell," when more than one flight in four was delayed or canceled?

After the nightmarish mix of bad weather, labor troubles and crowded runways inconvenienced millions of passengers in those hot months nearly five years ago, the airline industry, legislators and regulators vowed it would never happen again.

But an analysis by the Cincinnati Enquirer of air delay data of the past eight years show that delays are once again on the rise.

And this summer travel season is likely to see:

• Even more passengers flying than ever, thanks to cheaper fares.

• More commercial planes in the sky than ever, with airlines increasing capacity as well as using even smaller regional jets to carry the same number of passengers.

• Little more capacity either on runways or in airspace than during the summer of 2000. Federal air traffic controllers are trying new procedures to get more planes in the air while trying to cap flights at busy airports.

"We still have an inadequate air traffic system that is managed poorly in my view," says Mike Boyd, president of the Colorado aviation consulting firm The Boyd Group. "They've had six years to fix it and they haven't, and now we're back where we started."

The nation's top aviation official says regulators and airlines are more on their guard this time around. But even Federal Aviation Administration chief Marion Blakey can't say for sure whether delays will reach 2000 levels.

"I would need a crystal ball to say if it will happen again, and in a way, I'm only halfway kidding," Blakey said. "But I think it is fair to say that we are being much more proactive ... and obviously we all had the horrific experience of 2000, and none of us are willing to have that on our watch."

Many frequent fliers say delays are increasing not only in frequency but also in duration.

"I travel between Richmond, Virginia, and Cincinnati at least once a week, and I'm finding that the delays are more of an issue every time I fly," says Debbie Dahmer, who lives in Richmond but works as a consultant for a computer firm in Northern Kentucky. "I have lost a lot of confidence about what time I can get to work in the morning, so I won't even schedule any meetings."

According to data compiled by the federal Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the national on-time arrival rate in 2004 was 78 percent, not as bad as the 72.6 percent of 2000 but still worse than the rate for 2003 of about 82 percent.

The FAA's Blakey says her agency has set an on-time goal of 82 percent nationally. "We have a very clear idea of what it is we are trying to achieve ... and yes, I think it is an achievable goal."

Nationally, plane delays were primarily caused by problems with the clogged air traffic control system. Doug Wills of the Air Transport Association, the airline industry's main trade group, says bad weather causes 75 percent of the delays.

"So that means that the FAA and the airlines can only control 25 percent of the remaining total delays, and we are trying to do it with limited capacity on a system that was really designed to standards set in the 1950s," Wills says.

That is exactly what worries frequent travelers such as Wade Bush, who flies at least once a week as a vice president of a Union, Ky.-based grocery store supplies company.

"Delays are more frequent, and the planes are getting a lot more full and are frequently oversold, and in many cases, the airlines are getting more inflexible and treat you almost like you are an inconvenience to them," Bush says.

"Who knows what would happen if the system melts down again?"