In the supporting-actor category, the nominees are Alan Alda ("The Aviator"), Thomas Haden Church ("Sideways"), Jamie Foxx ("Collateral"), Morgan Freeman ("Million Dollar Baby") and Clive Owen for ("Closer").

Though the early momentum seemed to favor Church, for the slightly dim, lusty and likable fellow he played in "Sideways," there may be a late surge for a great veteran who has never won. The actor who should win is Morgan Freeman for "Million Dollar Baby."

The supporting-actress category might also be a predictor since it also features performances from "Sideways" and "The Aviator."

And then, some three hours later, the Academy will get around to its key awards, which always seemed to be jammed into the night's final half-hour. The best-actor category promises to be the only safe bet of the night. The nominees are Don Cheadle ("Hotel Rwanda"), Johnny Depp ("Finding Neverland"), Leonardo DiCaprio ("The Aviator"), Clint Eastwood ("Million Dollar Baby") and Foxx ("Ray").

Foxx's portrayal of the late, great Ray Charles is one of the most awesome performances in recent memory; it should and will win the Oscar.

The best-actress race seems a two-horse contest between old-school Hollywood (represented by Annette Bening, of "Being Julia") and new, young Hollywood (represented by Hilary Swank of "Million Dollar Baby"). The other three nominees should probably consider the nomination victory enough. They are Catalina Sandino Moreno ("Maria Full of Grace"), Imelda Staunton ("Vera Drake") and Kate Winslet ("Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind").

If we were giving out the Oscar, we'd go with the underdog, the talented British character actress Imelda Staunton, for her portrayal of the neighborly, kind-hearted abortionist in "Vera Drake." The winner, though, will be Swank (which is OK).

For veteran Hollywood watchers, the night's most suspenseful race will be between two of the industry's most respected filmmakers, Scorsese and Eastwood, in the best director category. Both men are more than worthy, both have made first-class films, and neither win would be an injustice. There's only one difference — Eastwood has a best-director Oscar to his name (for "Unforgiven") and Scorsese does not, despite his reputation as America's greatest living filmmaker.

For the record, the other three directors will be bystanders in the battle of the two titans. They are Taylor Hackford ("Ray"), Alexander Payne ("Sideways") and Mike Leigh ("Vera Drake").

And then, finally, it's time for the Academy to honor its choice as best picture. The nominees are all worthy. They are "The Aviator," "Finding Neverland," "Million Dollar Baby," "Ray" and "Sideways." Once again, the early momentum seemed to be for the popular "Sideways," but the late favorite now seems to be either "The Aviator" or "Million Dollar Baby."

The year's other controversial entry, "Fahrenheit 9/11" isn't nominated in any category, so it won't be part of the evening.

Chris Rock, the evening's host, is the other great question mark. Will he make his own distinctive entertaining mark on the Academy Awards, like Bob Hope and Billy Crystal before him, or will he struggle like Dave Letterman, Steve Martin and Whoopi Goldberg who've been less than memorable Oscar hosts?

We'll find out together tonight.

NOMINEES FOR OSCAR TRIVIA AWARDS

Think you know Academy Awards history? We challenge you to try this quiz by Gazette-Journal film critic Forrest Hartman. No cheating.

QUESTIONS

1) Why are the Academy Awards called the Oscars?

2) "The Aviator" leads all 2004 Oscar contenders with nominations in 11 categories. What film holds the record for most nominations? How about wins?

3) This year, Jamie Foxx was nominated for best actor for portraying musician Ray Charles and best supporting actor for playing a harried taxi driver in "Collateral." When was the last time an actor or actress was nominated in both the lead and supporting acting categories?

) "Finding Neverland" is up for best picture of 2004, but filmmaker Marc Forster was not nominated in the directing category. Has a film ever won best picture when its director was not nominated?

5) The Academy has how many voting members? A) about 1,000 B) about 6,000 C) about 10,000 D) about 20,000

6) Despite making some of the best-loved films in history, director Martin Scorsese has never won an Oscar. He has, however, received six previous nominations, four for directing and two for writing. Who has received the most Oscar nominations without winning?

7) How many branches of the motion-picture industry are represented in the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences?

8) Clint Eastwood not only received a best-actor nomination for his starring turn in "Million Dollar Baby," he is nominated for directing the film. Has an actor-director ever been nominated in both categories before?

9) Leonardo DiCaprio's portrayal of aviator Howard Hughes earned him a best-actor nomination. Is this his first nomination?

10) When were the first Academy Awards handed out?

ANSWERS

1) Nobody really knows. Rumor has it an Academy staffer said the statue looked like her uncle Oscar, and the nickname stuck. That story can't be verified, but in 1939 the Academy began using the name officially.

2) "All About Eve" (1950) and "Titanic" (1998) are tied for the most nominations at 14. Despite its nomination landslide, "Eve" won in only six categories. "Titanic" did significantly better, winning 11, which ties "Ben Hur" (1959) and "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" (2003) for most wins.

3) It happened just two years ago, when Julianne Moore was nominated for best actress for her performance in "Far From Heaven" and supporting actress for "The Hours." Foxx's double nomination is the tenth, and no actor has ever won in both categories.

) It has happened only three times, most recently in 1989 when "Driving Miss Daisy" took the top prize with director Bruce Beresford watching from the sidelines. The other "director-less" winners? "Grand Hotel" (1932) and "Wings" (1927).

5) B. The academy Web site — www.oscars.org — says there are more than 5,800 voting members.

6) Scorsese shouldn't feel bad. This year, sound mixer Kevin O'Connell received his 17th Academy Award nomination for his work on "Spider-Man 2." He's yet to win.

7) Fourteen. The academy has members within each of these specialties: acting, directing, art direction, cinematography, documentary, executives, film editing, music, producing, public relations, short film, sound, visual effects, writing.

8) Many times. The last was in 1998 when Italian actor-director Roberto Benigni was nominated for his direction and acting in "Life is Beautiful."

9) No. In 1993, he was nominated for his supporting role in "What's Eating Gilbert Grape."