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The Honolulu Advertiser

Posted on: Sunday, February 27, 2005

THE RISING EAST

Fargo reflects on Pacific security issues

By Richard Halloran

Adm. Thomas Fargo was, in turn, optimistic, cautious and pessimistic as he looked back over nearly six years of coping with security issues in Asia, first as commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet and then as commanding officer of all U.S. forces in this region.

In a wide-ranging interview on the eve of his retirement, Fargo was upbeat about the surge of democracy in Asia, the working relations developed with other military leaders throughout the region, and the evolution of Japan as a mature ally contributing to the security of Asia.

He was cautious about maintaining peace between China and Taiwan, saying that "miscalculation could occur on either side of the strait" that separates them, and he was wary about how China would use its rising power. He was guarded in assessing the future of the U.S. alliance with South Korea.

And the admiral, a submariner retiring after 35 years of service, contended that the United States and its allies had made progress against terrorists, pirates and drug smugglers in Southeast Asia but had far to go.

"We've taken a lot of these folks off the street," he said, "but we aren't there yet by any stretch of the imagination."

Adm. Thomas Fargo, as commander of U.S. Pacific forces, swore in more than 50 re-enlistees under the big guns of the USS Missouri. Democracy, he says, is growing stronger roots in Asia.

Advertiser library photo • Jan. 29, 2004

Asked about changes on his watch, Fargo put democracy in Asia at the top of his list. "We've seen the emerging democracies mature and fledgling democracies take shape," he said, pointing to 14 elections in Asia in 2004.

The "most obvious," he said, were the spring elections in Indonesia, in which 87 percent of 147 million voters went to the polls to choose the nation's first directly elected president, plus a parliament and local officials. The United States and other advanced nations are lucky to get out 50 percent of the voters.

Similarly, Fargo asserted, the parliamentary election in Malaysia in March "was a vote for moderation. It was a vote that says democracy and Islam and prosperity can flourish together." When democratic processes work, he said, "that strengthens governance." He cited historical studies arguing that "democracies don't attack or fight other democracies."

Next to democracy, the admiral said, he was pleased with professional relations developed with Asian and Pacific chiefs of defense during an annual gathering of those officers in Hawai'i or in Asia, the Shangri-la dialogue in Singapore each year, and his visits to 13 Asian nations, some of them several times.

A small but telling point: When he came to Hawai'i in 1999, telephone conversations with Asian defense chiefs were rare; today Fargo talks with three or four a month.

Japan-U.S. security relations have become "really excellent," he said. "We are very clearly seeing Japan mature in its security role." Fargo credited Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi with forging Japan's security posture and said that was likely to continue after Koizumi leaves office, perhaps in two years.

"Their evolution in their security architecture makes great sense based on the changes we've seen in the world," the admiral said, referring to globalization, the advance of China and the hostility of North Korea.

In contrast, Fargo was apprehensive about the Chinese, whose military capabilities will continue to expand. "I would hope that as they develop into a great power, and I think they will be a great power, that they will use all that comes with that status in a constructive way.

"The question is how are they going to use their emerging status," he said, "and we don't know the answer to that."

On Taiwan, over which China claims sovereignty, Fargo was equally apprehensive. He worried that the government in Taipei did not understand or did not believe the "Chinese red lines," or markers that could not be crossed, such as formally declaring independence, without provoking China into military action.

The admiral said Taiwanese opinion polls showed that "the majority of the people in Taiwan are clearly in favor of the status quo," meaning separation from China but without a formal declaration of independence. The outcome of parliamentary elections in December reflected that view, he said.

Fargo did not agree with proposals, such as that from the Cato Institute in Washington, that advocate withdrawing U.S. forces from South Korea. "I think we do need to be there," he said, although in smaller numbers than in the immediate past.

The admiral agreed, however, that South Koreans, among whom anti-Americanism has become rampant, were coming to a point where they must choose whether to continue their security treaty with the United States or to see the alliance broken and the troops depart.

Richard Halloran is a Honolulu-based journalist and former New York Times correspondent in Asia.