Posted on: Sunday, February 27, 2005

JERRY BURRIS

By Jerry Burris
Advertiser Editorial Editor

That well-known political prognosticator and election handicapper Ed Case has taken a look at the next race for governor in Hawai'i and has come to some conclusions.

Among them: Incumbent Republican Linda Lingle has done a good job of triangulating the body politik in Hawai'i. It will be difficult for any Democrat to get past her.

Case recognizes Lingle's ability to appeal to Republicans and moderate Democrats at the same time.

Another observation: To succeed against Lingle, Democrats would have to find a candidate outside the mainstream of traditional Island Democratic politics.

Again, Case doesn't say it in so many words, but his point is that the Democrats have been moved, ever so subtly, into the position occupied by Republicans for all these many years: Naysayers, complainers and reactors to someone else's agenda.

Democrats can rightfully point out that they control the Legislature and have been successful in imposing their own agenda in critical issues such as school reform and narcotics policy. Still, Case's point — at least, as I see it — is that the public has begun to think of the Democrats as the loyal opposition rather than the folks in charge.

Democratic successes in the Legislature (most of them in direct response to Lingle policy initiatives) do not represent "big-picture change," he argued.

And finally: The politics of nostalgia are no longer enough.

"The party has a problem," the Democrat and U.S. House member said in a recent chat with Advertiser editors and reporters. "Some of them just want to go back to the old ways."

There are others, he acknowledged, "who see the need to evolve," but they are not yet the dominant voice in his party.

So, all right, Rep. Case: Who is this outside-the-mainstream, somewhat moderate, nontraditional Democrat who can lead the party back to victory against Lingle and the emerging Republican juggernaut?

"I can see that person" Case said, "but I don't see a face. It just can't be a standard-issue Democrat."

As a practical matter, the candidate Case envisions bears a remarkable resemblance to ... well, Ed Case.

But it won't be him, he insists. The two-term congressman and ardent member of the moderate Democrat "Blue Dog" caucus in Congress, insists his proper place is in Washington, the D.C, rather than Washington, the Place.

"I just believe I can contribute more from there than from here," he said.

Now, this could be taken as a typical coy demurrer from someone who has an entirely different plan in mind. But not likely. Case truly does seem to enjoy his congressional work and speaks openly of a run for the U.S. Senate if and when that opportunity arises.

So if you take Case's analysis as valid, then who will the Democrats put up against Lingle in 2006?

The bench, by his definition, is not deep.