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The Honolulu Advertiser

Posted at 11:59 a.m., Wednesday, January 12, 2005

Markets rise despite record trade deficit

Hawai'i Stocks
Updated Market Chart

By Meg Richards
Associated Press

NEW YORK — Stocks moved higher in choppy trading today as investors focused on strong earnings news from Intel Corp. instead of a government report that high oil prices and lower exports had pushed the U.S. trade deficit to a record level.

Anxiety about Wall Street's slow start to the year has made some investors wary of making big bets as a number of companies prepare to release quarterly earnings, and a mixed bag of reports and outlooks did little to build confidence. It made for a confusing market today, as stocks meandered in and out of positive territory, but most analysts remained upbeat about the prospects for 2005.

"The start of the year has been difficult, but at the end of the day I think the fundamentals of the economy are intact," said Brian Pears, head equity trader at Victory Capital Management in Cleveland. "The earnings season will probably shape up pretty well, so it seems the selling is based more on what happened in November and December than on the future. So for that reason I'm pretty bullish."

According to preliminary results, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 61.56, or 0.58 percent, at 10,617.78, making most of its gains in the last hour of trading.

The broader gauges also were higher. The Standard & Poor's 500 index added 4.71, or 0.40 percent, to 1,187.70. The Nasdaq composite index rose 12.91, or 0.62 percent, to 2,092.53.

In Washington, the Commerce Department said America's trade deficit soared to an all-time high of $60.3 billion in November, reflecting record levels for imports of everything from oil and consumer goods to farm products. The 7.7 percent rise from an imbalance of $56 billion in October beat the previous monthly record, and caught economists by surprise; they'd forecast a slight narrowing of the trade gap.

The news prompted weakness in the dollar, which dropped sharply against the euro and other world currencies after the deficit data was released. Treasury Secretary John Snow has said repeatedly the Bush administration supports a "strong dollar" policy, but some analysts believe the U.S. government is content to see the dollar fall because it makes U.S. exports cheaper.

The unexpected widening in the trade gap also led to a bounce in gold and, initially, oil prices, which were also moving on the government's weekly report on fuel inventories. The Department of Energy found a 3 million barrel drop in crude supplies, a deeper decline than analysts had expected, but a 1.9 million barrel gain in distillate fuels, which include heating oil. Light, sweet crude for February delivery added 69 cents to settle at $46.37 per barrel.

But analysts say what might matter more for investors is the next batch of earnings reports, which could set the tone for the rest of 2005.

Chip maker Intel rose 62 cents to $23.16 after beating Wall Street earnings estimates by 2 cents a share and reporting stronger than expected revenues. It also issued an optimistic outlook for the first quarter.