But "guess what," says Randy Jackson, one of the show's judges. "Every season, I think, the right person was the winner."

Two of the three champions and one runner-up have leaped to huge success. Despite the show's flaws, talent seems to prevail.

"I don't care how bumpy the road was," Jackson says. "We got there."

Now the fourth season begins. It keeps the same judges (Simon Cowell, Paula Abdul and Jackson) and host (Ryan Seacrest). It has expanded the top age limit by two years, to 28.

They'll show the auditions, Jackson says, capturing the awful and the skilled. "The talent for this season is better than the first three years combined. (And) this year, it's the guys who are better."

That could be mere puffery, but Jackson was right a year ago, predicting a weak year for men and a strong one for women. "Idol" had a female final four.

When the show started, people expected it to follow the pattern set by the British version of "Idol." Young, female viewers would dominate the phone voting and the winner would be a cute guy.

By midway in the first season, Justin Guarini was pegged as the sure winner. "The majority of the (viewers) are female, enjoying his beautiful face," said one of the contestants, Christina Christian.

Then the surprises began. Guarini was the only male in the final four, and Kelly Clarkson won big.

Albums by "American Idol" winners Kelly Clarkson and Fantasia Barrino, as well as runner-up contestant Clay Aiken, have soared on the pop charts. Barrino soared after her performance of "Summertime." Associated Press library photos

Guys did dominate the second year, with Ruben Studdard edging Clay Aiken. The third year was all-female, with Fantasia Barrino's performance of "Summertime" pushing her to the top.

"I still think it was the best 'Idol' performance by anyone, any year," Jackson says. "She had the passion, the emotion. She was singing from the soul."

Clarkson and Barrino quickly topped record charts. From the second year, however, Aiken soared on the charts; Studdard didn't.

"Ruben is more of a laid-back guy," Jackson says.

Studdard has also moved away from the "velvet teddy bear" style that worked on the show. "Sometimes, you have to go back to who you are and what got you there," Jackson says.

Diana DeGarmo, left, and Fantasia Barrino embraced Jasmine Trias when she was voted off the show. Some say that Trias, who wept on the air, drew sympathy votes and stuck around. Fox

Tom Gutteridge, CEO of FremantleMedia North America, the British company that owns "Idol," says he ordered a study.

"We double-, triple-checked," Gutteridge says. "It was completely fair."

His conclusion? "Quite often ... the critics, including our own judges, don't actually reflect public taste at that moment."

There's another explanation: Cowell attacked Trias too harshly. She wept on the air, drew sympathy votes and stuck around.

"A lot of people stay too long," Jackson says. "John Stevens, God bless him, did. Jim Verraros, Jon Peter Lewis — it happens."

And yes, Cowell can go too far.

In "I Don't Mean to Be Rude, But" (Broadway Books, $21.95), Cowell praised Jackson's musical savvy and his personality: "He could light up any room."

He also called him an incurable name-dropper. And he wrote that Jackson was genuinely enraged one night during the first season, when Cowell's criticism of young singers peaked: "He exploded. He was really mad ... it was like facing Mount Kilimanjaro, if mountains had bad moods."

Jackson agrees that he was seething at Cowell that night. "The problem is that he'd just come over from England, and they are used to something different there."