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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Saturday, July 9, 2005

Hopes high for British economy

By Jane Wardell
Associated Press

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LONDON — Britain's economy is resilient enough to absorb the shock of a terrorist attack on its transportation system, economists said, a sentiment seen yesterday as markets throughout Europe shrugged off much of their losses from a day earlier.

Traders were unwinding the "safe haven" moves they had made a day earlier upon news of the blasts, said Phillip Shaw, chief economist at Investec in London.

The London Stock Exchange's key index, the FTSE 100, closed up 1.4 percent at 5,232, around its level before the blasts Thursday. The index had closed at 5,229.6 on Wednesday. Germany's DAX was up 1.5 percent at 4,597.97, and in Paris, the CAC 40 benchmark was up 1.9 percent to 4,300.31.

"Although I think we will see more volatility today, I can't help feeling that the worst is over for now," said Tom Hougaard, chief market strategist at City Index. "We had an ugly day, which will be with us forever, but the markets are intact and look defiant."

Economists pointed to the adaptability of the U.S. and Spanish economies after the Sept. 11 attacks and the March 2004 train blast in Madrid as encouragement for Britain. A key factor in both those recoveries was that more attacks did not follow.

"If the attacks (in London) turn out to be isolated, then calm should return quickly," economists at Goldman Sachs U.S. Economics Research wrote in an analysis. "That is what transpired following the Madrid train bombings."

Analysts said the biggest risk to Britain's economic outlook from Thursday's attacks was the impact on consumer confidence.

Shaw said it was "very, very early days to gauge," but there was little doubt that sectors such as transportation, services and tourism will take a short-term hit.

Insurance and travel-related stocks were among the hardest hit in the initial market slide Thursday. But yesterday, British Airways rose 2.1 percent to close at 266.25 pence ($4.64) after falling more than 4 percent a day earlier. Insurer Prudential gained 2.3 percent to 513.75 pence ($8.96), after dropping 1.9 percent Thursday.

The British pound, sent to a 19-month low on Thursday, fell even further yesterday to $1.7310 before rebounding a bit to $1.7342 — still down from $1.7425 in late New York trading a day before.

Analysts said the hit to consumer confidence would be problematic because the British economy had been showing signs of slowing. Major retailers have reported poor sales since the end of last year and the previously buoyant housing market showed signs of heading for a slump.