If Pearl Harbor Naval Shipyard is closed, the impact on Hawai'i's economy could affect you — whether you sell clothes at a mall, operate a restaurant or market life insurance.

It's not just welders, shipwrights and nuclear engineers who face the prospect of job loss should the federal government decide to close Hawai'i's largest shipyard.

"Without a job, those people are not buying cars, they're not buying houses," said John Strom, vice president of business development and technology for Enterprise Honolulu. "It's the ripple effect."

The annual loss to Hawai'i's economy could total $1.3 billion, including the loss of 9,565 shipyard jobs and 7,612 jobs that provide goods and services to shipyard families, according to an economic impact analysis released last week by local nonprofit economic development group Enterprise Honolulu.

Enterprise Honolulu, using generally accepted economic multipliers, calculated the number of downstream jobs created by the shipyard's highly paid labor force.

The shipyard, Hawai'i's largest industrial employer, has 4,297 civilian workers and 778 military personnel who earn an average of $75,862 a year, or $385 million collectively, according to Enterprise Honolulu.

The shipyard also contracts for goods and services from 156 companies in Hawai'i that employ 4,656 people who rely on the shipyard for work.

One of those people is Von Dent, 62, a supplier of Pearl Harbor-based surface ships through his company, Eurpac Warehouse Sales. He said a shipyard closure would "be bad and would really affect Hawai'i."

Goods and services purchased by the shipyard — everything from sandblasting grit to computer system installation — totals about $558 million.

Another $134 million would be lost in taxes, insurance and other costs associated with shipyard purchases and payroll.

And then there is the loss of the 7,600 jobs that help support shipyard employees, which equates to $259 million a year in wages.

How soon Hawai'i's $50 billion economy could bounce back from the $1.3 billion economic loss is harder to say.

Enterprise Honolulu said no existing local industries could absorb the shipyard's highly skilled workforce, which includes shipboard computer mechanics, structural engineers and shipfitters.

But much of the shipyard workforce is made up of electricians, welders and pipefitters who are in high demand by the state's booming construction industry.

It's also possible that jobs could be created if the shipyard were closed and shifted to another use.

In the past, the shipyard with its four dry docks has serviced foreign-flagged warships, and earlier this year was used to inspect parts and repaint the hull of the Tahitian Princess cruise ship.

Paul Brewbaker, Bank of Hawaii chief economist, said it's difficult to compare the potential loss of the shipyard to other economic shocks in Hawai'i's history.

About 10,000 local jobs were lost following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, but the loss was reversed within 12 months during a period of broader economic growth.

"It was a transitory event," Brewbaker said, adding that those job losses primarily affected lower-skilled tourism industry workers. "This is different."

Military downsizing in the late 1990s cost Hawai'i about 20,000 jobs, but that resulted in mostly young military families moving out of Hawai'i. That loss involved a less-skilled workforce than the shipyard. Their departure meant many rental units or homes were vacated and demand for housing declined. That added to pressure on decreasing home prices in the midst of an economic downturn for the state.

Brewbaker said many shipyard workers likely would find other employment in Hawai'i rather than move away as long as Hawai'i's economy continues to be strong.

Bases selected for closure by the Base Realignment and Closure Commission and approved by the president and Congress would have two years to start closing and six years to finish.

That gives workers time to adjust.

Rudy Trias, 47, the father of "American Idol" finalist Jasmine Trias, is an attack submarine engineering technician who has worked at the shipyard for 24 years and isn't too concerned about the possible closing.

"If it happens, it happens," he said. "It will take a while, like five years, before actually shutting down completely ... I could retire by then."

If he did retire, Trias said, "I'd just do my thing, go surfing, fix what I have to fix around the house."

Currently, Hawai'i's private sector is creating about 10,000 jobs a year. The gross state product was $49 billion last year and is projected to be $60 billion by 2008. A $1.3 billion loss would represent 2.5 percent of this year's projected $52 billion gross state product.

The BRAC Commission is expected to vote today on whether to add the shipyard to a Pentagon list of military installations suggested for downsizing or elimination.

The independent commission, created by Congress to help the Department of Defense consolidate facilities, is likely to place the most emphasis on the shipyard's strategic military value, rather than its economic importance to Hawai'i.

Still, the potential economic costs of losing the shipyard likely will be a component of the argument by Hawai'i officials lobbying to keep the shipyard open, as it has been for other states that are trying to save bases.