The recent decision by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to skip the annual ASEAN Regional Forum ministerial-level dialogue on Friday in Vientiane represents a setback for U.S. efforts to convince Southeast Asians that Washington really cares about their region.

Rice plans to send her deputy, Robert Zoellick, instead. The highly regarded Zoellick had a very successful visit to six Southeast Asian nations in May, but the decision by the secretary to skip her first opportunity to meet face-to-face with all her ASEAN and other East Asian counterparts has still widely been reported as "an unnecessary snub."

While reports of her being "the first secretary of state in 20 years to miss an ARF meeting" are inaccurate — the ARF was not established until 1994 and neither Warren Christopher nor Madeleine Albright had a perfect attendance record during the Clinton years — Rice's immediate predecessor, Colin Powell, did attend all four ARF meetings during his tenure in office, finding them "very, very useful," not only in promoting regional multilateralism but for the opportunity they provided for important side meetings.

Powell used meetings with his North Korean counterpart to restore dialogue and used another side meeting to sign a joint declaration with all 10 ASEAN foreign ministers promising cooperation in the war on terrorism (in which Southeast Asia remains a "second front").

The reaction to Rice's "snub" was predictable: "Condoleezza Rice: Too busy to care about Southeast Asia?" read one headline. "The country's top diplomat, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, apparently doesn't consider the region important enough to warrant her personal attention," cited one news report, further opining that "for her to stay away in her first year as the top U.S. diplomat could even damage U.S.-ASEAN relations at a time when there are concerns about China's growing influence in the region."

ASEAN Secretary-General Ong Keng Yong tried to put a positive spin on the news, stating that "Bob Zoellick knows the region well and he will do an excellent job." He acknowledged, however, that "the Lao hosts are still trying to persuade her to attend," further observing that her failure to appear "will be seen as unfortunate."

One country that is no doubt delighted by the announcement is China. Rice's absence will make the shadow cast by the presence of her Chinese counterpart all the larger and more significant.

In contrast to Washington, Beijing has been conducting a diplomatic offensive in Southeast Asia. President Hu Jintao visited Indonesia, Brunei and the Philippines in April, and National Peoples Congress Chairman Wu Bangguo visited Singapore and Malaysia in May. Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing also met with his ASEAN colleagues at the Asia-Europe ministerial meeting in Kyoto in May and, earlier in the year, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited Indonesia, where he meet with ASEAN colleagues attending a special leaders meeting on tsunami relief efforts.

Beijing, again unlike Washington, has also acceded to ASEAN's Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, making China eligible to attend this December's first East Asia Summit in Malaysia.

By contrast, Secretary Rice made a quick 18-hour visit to Thailand "to show how much the United States cares about Southeast Asia" during her early July swing through Northeast Asia. In Phuket, in response to repeated questions, she explained, to virtually no one's satisfaction, that "other essential travel ... in roughly the same time frame" precluded her participation. (The New York Times reports that she has an Africa trip planned in the days before the ARF meeting but would be back in D.C. before Zoellick's departure for Laos.)

Some pundits are tying Rice's decision (in my view incorrectly) to continuing U.S. dissatisfaction with ASEAN's handling of the contentious issue of Myanmar's scheduled assumption of the ASEAN (and, by extension, ARF) chair in mid-2006. The United States has made it clear that it will not send senior officials to any meeting chaired by Rangoon. Informal discussions with ASEAN officials tell me that a deal has already been reached for Rangoon to announce its intention to skip its turn in the chair, but this is yet to be confirmed.

If Secretary Rice's decision to skip this year's ministerial session is aimed at putting pressure on ASEAN to culminate this agreement, this is likely to backfire. Regardless of its intent, Rice's decision, if not reversed, may deflate the U.S. threat not to attend future meetings; it may also encourage wavering ASEAN members to reduce or retract their pressure on Myanmar.

At a minimum, a Rice no-show undermines the message that the U.S. intends to stay engaged in Southeast Asia.

As one Singaporean security analyst noted: "Dr. Rice's absence should not come as a surprise because President George W. Bush's unilateral-focused administration had downgraded the importance of multilateral forums like the ARF."

In truth, during its first four years, the Bush administration was a strong proponent of East Asia multilateralism. Secretary Powell's perfect attendance at the ARF was matched by President Bush's at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders Meeting, something his predecessor (who established the forum) failed to do.

But in Asia, perception frequently trumps reality, and Dr. Rice's ill-conceived decision to skip her first ARF meeting regrettably will reinforce all the wrong perceptions at a time when Southeast Asians are seeking reassurance of Washington's continuing commitment in the face of a rising China.

Ralph A. Cossa is president of the Pacific Forum CSIS (pacforum@hawaii.rr.com), a Honolulu-based nonprofit research institute affiliated with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington and senior editor of Comparative Connections, a quarterly electronic journal (www.csis.org/pacfor).