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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Wednesday, June 1, 2005

EDITORIAL
U.S. exit from Iraq still remains far off

Iraqi leaders, backed by the U.S. armed forces command, have taken an important step toward strengthening their new democracy.

"Operation Lightning," a large-scale sweep aimed at tightening security in Baghdad, is a move in the right direction, but it will be a long time before Americans will see a true exit strategy emerging.

More than 40,000 Iraqi police and soldiers, joined by U.S. troops and air support, have set the only reasonable agenda for the current, perilous conditions: to rout out insurgents by forming a cordon around the capital city. Clearly, securing Baghdad would be a critical advance down the road toward lasting stability for the new government.

The most optimistic outlook would conclude that an Iraqi-dominated force could form the underpinnings for stability precisely because it could bolster confidence in the government's ability to defend itself. At this point, that's unrealistic. The dynamics in Iraq are much more complex, with Shiite-Sunni tensions compounding the intense resentment of the American occupation. Some of those who have launched bombing attacks specifically targeted Iraqis; others are shamefully undeterred by the idea of collateral Iraqi casualties.

The fact that this is not a monolithic uprising, with lines of authority to al-Qaida or any other group plainly delineated, complicates attempts to counter it.

The next days and weeks could represent the most dangerous period of this war, if insurgents sense that their window of opportunity is narrowing. Over the weekend, opposition forces already struck back with a string of car bombings. The American public should count Operation Lightning as progress but cannot expect that lightning to strike cleanly.