Posted on: Sunday, March 6, 2005

THE RISING EAST

By Richard Halloran

TAIPEI, Taiwan — Communications between the government of Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian and the administration of President Bush have become increasingly muddled, adding to the possibility of miscalculation in the confrontation between this island nation and China.

A blunder in what are known as "cross-strait relations" could cause the United States and China to stumble into hostilities that would affect everyone in East Asia. The dispute arises from China's claim to sovereignty over Taiwan and Beijing's repeated threats to use force to conquer the island. On the other side, Taiwan seeks to remain separate from China and every day edges farther away.

The Bush administration, preoccupied with the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran, insurgency in Iraq, volatile rivalry between Israel and Palestinians, rebuilding relations with Europe and persuading Russia not to retreat from its sprouting democracy, has articulated no real policy on the Taiwan issue beyond platitudes about settling disputes peacefully.

Alan Romberg, director of the East Asia Program at the Henry Stimson Center in Washington and a retired diplomat experienced in Asia, recently warned that a blunder could lead to an escalation of tensions. "While the chance of cross-strait conflict is not high," Romberg said, "it is also not zero, and the consequences would be enormous for all parties."

Taiwanese and American officials in Taipei, at the U.S. Pacific Command in Hawai'i, and in Washington point to three reasons for the less-than-open communications between the two capitals:

• Awkward, quasi-official relations between Taipei and Washington have been dictated by China's demand for a "one-China policy" that precludes all but routine contacts.

• Inexperience in foreign policy and statesmanship of Chen and his closest advisers and their tendency to see most issues through the lens of domestic politics.

• Washington's failure to grasp Chen's drive for Taiwan's self-determination, compounded by mixed messages from the White House, the State and Defense departments, and the Congress.

Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum think tank in Hawai'i who often takes part in nongovernmental or "Track 2" deliberations on the Taiwan issue, sums up succinctly: "To have good communications, people on both ends need to listen."

"The Taiwanese are masters at ignoring U.S. official communications and hearing only what they want to hear," Cossa said. "In Washington, the administration has been trying to get people to speak with one voice, but I don't think they have been effective."

After President Jimmy Carter broke diplomatic relations with Taiwan and established official ties with China in 1979, the United States set up the American Institute in Taiwan as an embassy in all but name. Routine communications through the institute work well, according to American and Taiwanese officials who have access to each other.

Chen and his foreign and defense ministers, however, have never had serious discussions with Bush or a secretary of state or defense because Beijing's "one-China policy" forbids it. Chen as president has not been allowed to visit the United States except for stopovers in transit to someplace else. Nor have senior Bush officials been to Taiwan.

The role of personalities in international relations is not to be underestimated. Contrast the distance between Chen and Bush with the political ties that have evolved between Bush and Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi of Japan. Those two leaders have met a dozen or more times over the past four years and sometimes talk on the phone.

American officials contend that a letter from Bush and special envoys sent to Taipei have conveyed the administration's positions and thinking to Chen's government. Senior Taiwanese officials retort that they cannot be sure whether those communications reflect Bush's position or those of the staff or couriers.

Whatever the case, Taiwanese officials said Chen has gotten the message from Washington in recent months. It makes two points: Cease public statements likely to anger the Chinese and keep Washington informed so Bush officials are not surprised by Chen's pronouncements.

An ironic touch: Former President Bill Clinton was just in Taipei to meet with Chen. In June 1998, Clinton angered most Taiwanese by saying in Shanghai: "We don't support independence for Taiwan, or 'two Chinas,' or 'one Taiwan, one China,' and we don't believe that Taiwan should be a member in any organization for which statehood is a requirement."

On Clinton's visit to Taipei, however, the Chinese roundly chastised him for what they called a violation of the "one-China principle" by meeting with Chen and thereby according him recognition.

Richard Halloran is a Honolulu-based journalist and former New York Times correspondent in Asia.