EDITORIAL
Cautious hopes are stirring in the Mideast
Those who have been severely critical of President Bush's policies in the Middle East, including this newspaper, must acknowledge a wave of positive developments in the region that cannot be dissociated from those policies.
Free elections in Palestine and Iraq, a competitive election promised in Egypt and a popular uprising against Syria's occupation of Lebanon that toppled Beirut's government are all in some way related to Bush's proclamation that the main aim of American foreign policy is to advance the cause of global freedom.
But it's way too soon to ascribe a liberalizing "Mideast spring" to the Iraqi invasion, as much as all of us hope for it.
While the Iraqi election clearly triggered stirrings in neighboring countries, it's also true that each case has a tangled and volatile history all its own. And it's much too soon to predict with confidence that any of them will follow an Eastern European model.
For starters, there's no assurance that democracy in the Middle East won't lead to state-imposed Sharia law, potentially a huge backward step for women and minorities, or civil war.
Consider Lebanon, from which the West is demanding withdrawal of Syria's 14,000 occupying troops. Syria got into Lebanon in 1976 with the approval of the United States and Israel, both of which have also sent troops to Lebanon.
There's danger in precipitous withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon. The terrorist organization Hezbollah, which represents a substantial portion of Lebanon's population, may become a more potent political force.
The Syrians have encouraged and abetted Hezbollah, it's true; but they are also its only restraint.
Undeniably, there's a political reawakening in Lebanon. Even if it ultimately turns out badly, it's exciting to see.
Every bit as influential in regional affairs as the Iraqi war is the frustrating stalemate between Israelis and Palestinians. Hopeful signs occasioned by the death of Yasser Arafat and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza are offset by Israel's cantonment of West Bank Palestinians and its unrealistic expectation that the Palestinian leadership has the ability to end suicide bombings. All of these developments, positive or not, resonate mightily through the region.
The Middle East has lagged the rest of the world in its struggle to awaken from a perverse time warp.
An awakening, however, will happen only if the United States and the rest of the world encourages these tentative steps toward democratization with sympathy, diplomatic sophistication and the patience to know that each bit of progress likely will be accompanied by yet more violence and tears.
