Posted on: Thursday, March 10, 2005

Number of kids ages 5-13 drops

By Timothy Hurley
Advertiser Staff Writer

Influenced by falling birth and marriage rates, Hawai'i experienced a sharp decline in the number of elementary school-age children over the past five years, according to Census Bureau estimates to be released today.

The decline in children ages 5 to 13 follows a national trend, but the drop was more pronounced in Hawai'i, where the number of elementary school-age children dipped 5.5 percent, from 151,841 in April 2000 to 143,522 in July 2004. Nationally, the decline was only 1.8 percent for that age group.

Officials at the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism said the decline likely is linked to fewer births and marriages in recent years.

In 1990, Hawai'i's birth rate was 18.5 births per 1,000 residents. By 2000, the rate had dropped to 14.5 births per 1,000 residents, a much sharper decline than the national average, said Pearl Imada Iboshi, head of DBEDT's Research and Economic Analysis Division. She said the falling birth rate was attributed in part to a reduction in the number of marriages in Hawai'i. In 1990, 55 females got married per 1,000 females age 15 years and older. In 2000, the number dropped to 42 marriages per 1,000 females.

The declining numbers are reflected in public school enrollment, where the elementary school population lost more than 5,000 students over the past five years, from 104,253 in the 2000-01 school year to 99,132 this school year, said Clyde Igarashi, a specialist in the state Department of Education's Office of Information and Technology Services.

Meanwhile, Hawai'i's high school-age population — ages 14 to 17 — jumped 2 percent, or 1,321, in 2004, according to census estimates. The state had leveled off at about 65,000 over the past few years.

Imada Iboshi said the 2004 high school-age population increase was due to the higher number of 10-year-olds in 2000 who came of age. According to the census data, Hawai'i's high school population will increase through 2006.

Igarashi said that while intermediate and high school populations experienced slight growth over the past five years, the DOE is projecting declining overall enrollment for the next six years, with declines in elementary-age students leading the way. He said the school system expects to lose about 1,000 students a year through the 2009-10 school year.

Other estimates released by the Census Bureau today and analyzed by DBEDT's Research and Economic Analysis Division show that:

• Hawai'i's population is slightly older than the national average. The median age for Hawai'i in 2004 was 37.7 years compared with 36 years nationally.

• Hawai'i's 65-plus population grew faster than other age groups, at an annual rate of 1.6 percent. The Census Bureau estimates that in July 2004, 13.6 percent of Hawai'i residents were 65 years or older, compared with 12.4 percent nationally.

• The number of males and females in Hawai'i was roughly equal, with an average of 99.6 males per 100 females. However, Hawai'i's male-to-female ratio has been declining over the years. In April 2000, there were 101 males per 100 females.

• Hawai'i was home to an estimated 44,496 military personnel in July 2004, or about 3.5 percent of the state's total population.

• From April 2000 to July 2004, Hawai'i's population increased by 4.2 percent, to 1.26 million. That compares with a national growth rate of 4.3 percent.

Reach Timothy Hurley at (808) 244-4880 or thurley@honoluluadvertiser.com.