Posted on: Thursday, March 31, 2005
Carrier talks center on Isles
By William Cole
Advertiser Military Writer
A decision whether to base an aircraft carrier in Hawai'i depends on rising war costs, proposed Navy cuts, domestic budget concerns and a new round of base closures, Hawai'i's senior U.S. senator said.
However, the announcement could be made within a year, said Sen. Dan Inouye, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee's defense subcommittee.
"I think there is a consensus building up that a carrier should be homeported in the Pacific, and the two likely places would be Hawai'i or Guam. The question, I think, may come down to a matter of cost," Inouye said.
The decision has been eagerly awaited because of the economic impact of a carrier group. Basing an aircraft carrier in Hawai'i would bring approximately 5,000 crew members and an air wing of 70 to 80 aircraft, along with an undetermined number of escort ships.
As recently as October, Navy Secretary Gordon England said there is a "strong desire" to base an aircraft carrier in the Pacific, that Guam and Hawai'i are the only locations being considered, and that a decision could be announced in May.
But recently planned defense cuts, including the announced retirement this year of one of the nation's 12 aircraft carriers, have taken some steam out of the Hawai'i plan.
Within a year's time — and if the base closure process is resolved — an announcement could be made.
"And that announcement will not say that we will base it here, but steps will be taken, because let's say the first step is a small appropriation for plans and design and assessment," Inouye said. "And if plans and design and assessment come out and show that the costs are prohibitive, well, I don't know what's going to happen."
Not since World War II has one of the nation's carriers been stationed at Pearl Harbor. The end of the Cold War has brought a shift in military concern to the Pacific, with potential flashpoints on the Korean Peninsula and between China and Taiwan, nuclear nations Pakistan and India, and insurgency and terrorism worries out of Indonesia and the Philippines.
U.S. Pacific Command, based at Camp Smith, includes nearly 60 percent of the world's population, the world's six largest armed forces, and five of the seven worldwide U.S. mutual defense treaties.
The nation's 12 aircraft carriers are equally distributed between the Atlantic and Pacific, with six on the East Coast, five on the West Coast, and the non-nuclear USS Kitty Hawk in Yokosuka, Japan.
In its discussions of moving a carrier strike group to Hawai'i or Guam, the Navy has talked about overcoming the "tyranny of distance" to the Asian Mainland. Hawai'i is about a week's sailing time closer; Guam is closer yet.
In San Diego, the Regional Chamber of Commerce in 2003 calculated that each carrier had an annual $270 million economic impact, including $111 million in payroll spent locally and $40 million in maintenance contracts.
Inouye this week said it will cost billions, not millions, to base a carrier and its strike group of escort ships in the Pacific.
One estimate places the cost for Hawai'i at $2.2 billion, and Guam at $5 billion.
"Even assuming that there is no hitch in the financing — which I know there will be because the demands upon our appropriations are just horrendous — and if you add to that tax cuts and Social Security, it makes it a bit more horrendous," Inouye said.
Assuming a best-case scenario for financing, Inouye said, "we would have problems here, because you are going to have a lot of people (with a carrier who need) housing — some people don't want military housing next to them. You're going to have environmental concerns expressed by our citizens, and the cost of real estate, etc."
"It's a very complex problem, but I am convinced that strategically, at some point, (the Defense Department) will have to decide there is the need for such a vessel in the Pacific," he said.
Inouye said Navy officials have not officially announced a preferred carrier location, "but talking to officers that should know what they are talking about, they think this place (Hawai'i) is it."
U.S. Pacific Fleet in 2003 embarked on a $1.8 million study to look at basing an aircraft carrier and air wing in Hawai'i. No such study was done for Guam. But in the final analysis, it will be a Defense Department decision, Inouye said.
Whether a Pacific carrier basing decision will be the result of a new round of base closures or the Quadrennial Defense Review, is unclear.
A new Base Realignment and Closure round, or BRAC, is under way. The Pentagon has said it has 25 percent excess capacity, and all military installations within the United States will be examined. Hawai'i bases are seen as being relatively secure.
By May 16, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld must provide a list of military bases recommended for closure.
Inouye said the decision "has not been firmly made" whether a carrier decision will be part of BRAC. The Quadrennial Defense Review, meanwhile, is a review of military programs every four years that's expected to start soon and be turned over to Congress early next year.
Stars and Stripes reported yesterday that Navy officials at the Pentagon believe Hawai'i has an edge over Guam, and any decision would be made out of the defense review.
"The discussion has been about Hawai'i and Guam, but it has centered principally on Hawai'i," Stars and Stripes reported Vice Adm. Joseph Sestak, deputy chief of naval operations for warfare requirements and programs, as saying.
"I think they both, in the studies that were done, portended advantages, but we are very familiar with Hawai'i. I think Hawai'i always lent itself to have a fairly well-settled infrastructure," Sestak said.
President Bush's fiscal 2006 budget request proposed reducing the number of aircraft carriers from 12 to 11, and cuts in the number of new ships to be built. The 37-year-old John F. Kennedy, based in Mayport Fla., would be retired this year. Navy officials have said greater efficiencies mean that the Navy can produce twice as much combat power than it could five years ago.
The retirement, which would leave Norfolk as the sole carrier base on the East Coast, sparked a campaign to move some other carrier to Florida.
Amid that environment, Hawai'i U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka has asked for impartiality as the Navy and Pentagon look at reorganizing its carrier force. There is the feeling that the Pacific, despite its growing prominence, still gets overlooked.
"I think the general consensus is that the Pacific is the area of major concern," Inouye said. "But, after all, our history is an Atlantic history. You can't just push away tradition and history as something unimportant. It takes a while."
Inouye said Hawai'i has advantages over Guam, including a preference by sailors and their families to be stationed here.
But not everyone in Hawai'i wants a carrier strike group, and Guam, being built up as a submarine base and bombers, has lobbied aggressively for a carrier.
Elayne Pool, a 78-year-old Kane'ohe resident, is concerned that jet noise from carrier fighters that could be based at the Marine Corps base would negatively impact property values.
"I ask what the value of our homes will be when they are near a runway with F/A-18 jets landing, and our windows are rattling?" she said. "These fragile islands will be forever changed by the aircraft carrier presence and increased military."
Asked if Hawai'i needs to demonstrate stronger support for a carrier, Inouye said, "If they show that they don't support it, they (the Navy) can go elsewhere."
Inouye said the Navy still is examining a plan to spread out a carrier air wing of jets, propeller aircraft and helicopters at Kane'ohe Bay; the former Barbers Point, now known as Kalaeloa; Wheeler Army Airfield; and at Barking Sands on Kaua'i. The dispersion would be intended to reduce impact like jet noise, he said.
Barbers Point Naval Air Station, closed in 1999 through the BRAC process, would have to be reopened to some degree. State House Vice Speaker K. Mark Takai, D-34th (Pearl City, Newtown, Royal Summit), said he's in favor of reopening the base.
"From our perspective, whatever is necessary, we will work to provide the Navy, whether it be access for the Navy to Kalaeloa (or something else)," Takai said. "It (an aircraft carrier) is an important possibility for us, and we don't want to be blocking the way."
Reach William Cole at wcole@honoluluadvertiser.com or 525-5459.
