By Ferd Lewis
Advertiser Columnist

Who would have thought we'd be looking at this week's series with San Jose State as a crucial juncture in the season for the University of Hawai'i baseball team?

Here it is just the third series of a 30-game Western Athletic Conference schedule and already it has become win — or else — time for the Rainbows. And the first meeting with six-time conference champion Rice, that time-honored benchmark, is still two weeks away.

The danger is that if the 'Bows don't grab at least two of three games in the weekend series that starts tomorrow night at Les Murakami Stadium, the WAC race could be ending for UH before it has a chance to get under way. And nobody wants to start planning their end-of-the-season banquet the first week of April.

Clearly, that's not the way it was envisioned when the season began amid considerable postseason optimism. Picked to finish second in the WAC and chase Rice to the wire, the 'Bows were planning on their first real pennant race in a decade. But the reality of a disappointing 13-16 (1-5 WAC) beginning is that the 'Bows' margin for error was exhausted by Easter. The good wins have been overtaken by too many bad losses.

From the high of the sweep of Florida State and a 12-8 start, the 'Bows woke up in the WAC cellar this week. That's what happens when you lose six games in a row and eight of the last nine.

What matters now is what the 'Bows do about it starting tomorrow against the surprising Spartans, a preseason pick for the bottom suddenly turned early leader in the WAC.

The Rainbows can do both themselves and the rest of the conference a favor by bringing the Spartans back down to earth. The 'Bows' own hopes of a postseason now require it.

UH had started the 56-game season with a magic number of 37 — the amount of victories coach Mike Trapasso had figured it would take his team, given its strength of schedule, to be confident of an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament after an 11-year absence.

In their current straits, the Rainbows would have to go 24-3 the rest of the way to hit that target. Better to buy a lottery ticket than bank on hitting those numbers now, especially with the schedule road-loaded after this weekend.

If the avowed goal of a postseason bid is to become reality, then the 'Bows' have to win the conference outright, something that hasn't happened since 1992. And getting off to a 1-7 start — or worse — which is what UH would be staring at if it doesn't win at least two of three games in this series — isn't the way to go about it. Not when only two of the last six conference champions have lost more than six games.

For the 'Bows, this is the week they either jump into the conference race or risk calling it a season.

Reach Ferd Lewis at flewis@honoluluadvertiser.com or 525-8044.