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The Honolulu Advertiser

Posted on: Sunday, May 1, 2005

Leveraging Lingle for 2006 race

By Jerry Burris
Advertiser Editorial Editor

One of the major issues before the 2005 Legislature, which is due to wrap up this week, has been the 2006 elections.

No, not funding the election process or setting up those pesky constitutional amendments. The topic was who is going to win the governorship and how that will happen.

It added up to some not-so-subtle jockeying between legislators and the governor's office for the pole position in 2006.

Everything a politician does lays the groundwork, one way or another, for the next election. That's true from individual legislators doing good work for their home-district constituents to the most sweeping programs affecting the entire state.

But beyond this traditional pre-election work, there was additional skirmishing that won't become entirely apparent until the election begins in earnest. The focus was on Gov. Linda Lingle's expected re-election bid and Democratic efforts to unseat her.

Take, for example, pay raises for unionized state employees. With a substantial arbitrator's award for the HGEA setting the pace, the unions — including teachers — did relatively well this year.

Lingle lost no time in pointing out that the raises blast a substantial hole in the state's budget surplus, leaving precious little left over for other programs or plans. It was pointed out then, and will be pointed out again next year, that it was Democrats in the Legislature who refused to do away with arbitration when they had the chance.

It sets up an ideal scenario for someone, if not the governor then certainly others who support her, to campaign next year against profligate Democrats and their union supporters.

And if the Republicans are going to run against free-spending Democrats and powerful unions, who will the Democrats run against?

One likely guess: President Bush. Lingle already has said she expects the Democrats to attempt to tie her directly to the administration in Washington.

One clue can be found in the committee reports attached to the budget produced by the Democrats in the House and Senate this year. Take, for instance, this language from the House Finance Committee report on the budget (HB100):

Despite, the committee report says, favorable economic indicators in Hawai'i, "there are impending gaps in the federal budget as developed and submitted by President George W. Bush — gaps that will impose larger unfunded mandates on all states in the near future."

Just to make sure no one misses the message, the report goes on: "Your committee has discovered that these gaps are mirrored in the state budget proposed by the governor, and has worked to try to fill these 'pukas' in the best way possible."

Since Lingle undoubtedly is more popular in Hawai'i than the president, this strategy makes as much sense as any other unless the Democrats can come up with a world-beater candidate of their own.

Jerry Burris is The Advertiser's editorial page editor.