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The Honolulu Advertiser

Posted on: Tuesday, May 17, 2005

Mild hurricane season forecast

By Mike Gordon
Advertiser Staff Writer

Hawai'i can expect a mild hurricane season this year, but the same weather patterns that ushered in that forecast also set the stage for a potentially fearsome fire season, the National Weather Service said yesterday.

Hurricane history

From 1971 to 2004, there have been 46 hurricanes, 54 tropical storms and 49 tropical depressions in the Central Pacific, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

During that same time, however, only two hurricanes hit Hawai'i: Iwa in 1982 and Iniki in 1992. Historically, the most active months of the hurricane season are July, August and September.

Two to three tropical cyclones are forecast for the season, which runs from June 1 through

Nov. 30, said Jim Weyman, director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and area manager for the weather service in Hawai'i. Tropical cyclones are the weather systems that become tropical storms and hurricanes.

Last year, there were three tropical cyclones — two fewer than forecast — in the Central Pacific, the region that includes Hawai'i. That left the weather service, which announced its forecast yesterday, worried that Hawai'i residents are complacent and unprepared for a hurricane.

It would only take a single hurricane to create devastation, Weyman said.

"I feel sometimes like the boy who cried wolf repeatedly, and I think sometimes the public feels that way," he said. "But I know a hurricane will hit Hawai'i. We don't know if it will be this year or in 13 years."

The last hurricane to hit the Islands, Iniki, slammed Kaua'i in 1992 — 13 years ago. It caused billions of dollars worth of damage, Weyman said.

Even so, he said most people in the Islands remain completely unprepared.

Be prepared

Here are a few tips in case of a hurricane:

• Learn evacuation routes and shelter locations.

• Agree on a place to meet in case family members become separated.

• Agree on a single contact person, such as a friend on the Mainland, who will pass along messages to family members.

• Assemble a disaster supply kit with a flashlight, batteries, water, non-perishable food and an adequate supply of medicine.

• Cover doors and windows with plywood or hurricane shutters.

• Move loose outside objects and furniture inside.

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

"Most of the people living in Hawai'i have never experienced a hurricane in their lifetime," Weyman said, noting the increase in homes along shorelines and ridge lines since Iniki roared through.

"All those people are at risk, and I don't think those people know that," he said.

The Hawai'i forecast stands in stark contrast to the one released yesterday for the Atlantic Seaboard and the Gulf Coast. The weather service predicts 12 to 15 tropical storms will churn through the region, and that three of them will turn into major hurricanes.

Weather service forecasters at the Hawai'i office were joined yesterday by civil defense officials concerned about hurricane preparedness.

They displayed a sample disaster kit with supplies they want families to keep on hand: a 5-gallon jug of water, chips, crackers, juice, a can opener, batteries, a first aid kit, candles, toilet paper, blankets, flashlights and a weather-band radio.

But being ready involves more than supplies, said Maria Lutz, director of disaster services for the Hawai'i chapter of the American Red Cross. Each family needs a plan, she said, before asking a number of questions she felt only 15 percent of the public was prepared to answer.

"How will you re-unify?" Lutz said. "How will you get together again? Do you have a pre-determined meeting place? Do you have an out-of-state contact? Do you have an evacuation plan? These are basic questions you need to answer."

Families also need to keep basic kits in their cars and at work, she said. But most people fail to prepare because it's unpleasant, she added.

"It falls into the category of things people don't want to think about," Lutz said. "It's too depressing, so most people haven't spent the time getting it done."

Forecasters yesterday also warned the public to prepare for a potentially bad summer fire season.

Two wet rainy seasons in a row have produced a lot of vegetation, said Kevin Kodama, a senior hydrologist for the weather service.

The 2004-05 rainy season was the 10th-wettest in 30 years, and the one before that never really dried out. Unseasonal rains last summer reduced the amount of vegetation that burned, Kodama said.

"Now we're heading into the dry season, and there are a lot of things to burn," he said.

The brushfire in Nanakuli, which burned through its seventh day yesterday, was fresh on Kodama's mind.

He said this year's fire season has started a month early.

"The fire weather season is going to be pretty bad if it keeps looking like this," Kodama said.

Reach Mike Gordon at mgordon@honoluluadvertiser.com or 525-8012.