The Moloka'i Hoe is the race every canoe club wants to win, but no one wants to be picked to win.

So if you want to find out who the top contenders are, just ask one of the contenders. They'll list every team except themselves.

"That's the nature of it — you don't want to jinx yourself," Lanikai steersman Jim Foti said. "So you pick the other guys and put the pressure on them."

The Moloka'i Hoe is a 41-mile race from Hale O Lono Harbor, Moloka'i, to Duke Kahanamoku Beach, Waikiki. It is considered the world championship of long-distance outrigger canoe racing.

Lanikai is the defending Moloka'i Hoe champion, but they are picking Outrigger Canoe Club, Ra'i from Tahiti and Team New Zealand/Hawai'i as the favorites.

Outrigger beat Lanikai at the Henry Ayau Memorial Race last month, but they are still labeling Lanikai as the team to beat.

"The bottom line is, you never know what's going to happen in Moloka'i," Foti said. "There's so many things that can happen during the race, and there's always dark horses that come out of nowhere."

In any case, Lanikai and Outrigger appear to be the top two teams.

Lanikai is sticking with the same formula that it used last year. The nine paddlers who were in the victorious crew last year will once again represent Lanikai's "first crew."

"We had a bunch of good, young guys push us this year," Foti said. "But I guess we decided to go with what worked the last time. Our second crew is actually going to be really strong, too. They could beat us."

Outrigger had a successful run leading to this week under first-year coach John Puakea, highlighted by the victory in the Henry Ayau race.

"That really helped our confidence," said Puakea, who coached Team Bradley to a victory in the Na Wahine O Ke Kai women's race two weeks ago. "To battle with Lanikai like that and come out ahead was a real accomplishment."

However, Puakea is somewhat concerned about the conditions — winds are expected to be light, and the current unfavorable.

"We're not a big, strong crew so we might be at a disadvantage," Puakea said. "Lanikai is excellent in all kinds of conditions, and (Ra'i) is very strong in the flat."

Ra'i won the Moloka'i Hoe in 2002, but only two paddlers remain from that championship crew — brothers Lewis and Milton Laughlin.

"We tried to bring in some new, younger guys," Milton Laughlin said. "People say we can only win in the flat (water), but we are ready for anything."

Many of the top teams from Tahiti are not entered this year because of a conflicting race in Tahiti. As former champions, Ra'i chose to fly to Moloka'i.

"People from back home were asking us why we are going to Moloka'i," Milton Laughlin said. "It's because Moloka'i is different — there is the mana in this race. We love this race."

Team New Zealand/Hawai'i won the Moloka'i Hoe in 2001 and 2003, but it has made several changes to its crew.

Tui Tonga from the Big Island won the Queen Lili'uokalani race in Kona last month, and is also expected to be in the lead pack.

Other potential contenders include Hui Lanakila, Hui Nalu, Healani, Hawaiian, Kailua and Lanakila of California.

More than 100 crews are expected to participate, including entries from California, Oregon, Washington, Canada, Australia, Japan and Hong Kong.

Reach Dayton Morinaga at dmorinaga@honoluluadvertiser.com.